Zogby Predicts Kerry Victory !

[Webruary]

Zogby Predicts Kerry Will Win

Dave Eberhart, NewsMax.com

Friday, Oct. 29, 2004


http://newsmax.com/archives/articles/2004/10/29/83336.shtml

[Webruary]

HERE IS ANOTHER VIEW FOR PERSPECTIVE :
================================================
http://www.nationalreview.com/kerry/kerry200410291021.asp

ZOGBY - DIFFERENT COLUMNS, DIFFERENT ANSWERS (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1261399/posts)



National Review Kerry Spot ^ (http://www.freerepublic.com/%5ehttp:/www.nationalreview.com/kerry/kerry200410291021.asp) | 10/29/04 | Jim Geraghty

Kerry Spot [ jim geraghty reporting ]

ZOGBY - DIFFERENT COLUMNS, DIFFERENT ANSWERS

Earlier this week, Zogby told Bob Novak he was leaning toward predicting a Bush win. Now he tells Sidney Zion he thinks Kerry will win.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/ideas_opinions/story/247133p-211694c.html

Zion mentions how Zogby was right in 1996 - and, to his credit, he detected the late surge for Gore in 2000. But he was way, way off in 2002 when he predicted a Democratic takeover of Congress.

If someone else calls him tomorrow, can they get him to predict a Nader win?

[Posted 10/29 10:21 AM]

Here's part of the Novak column from YESTERDAY(?!) :

Kerry unable to crack Bush base

October 28, 2004

BY ROBERT NOVAK SUN-TIMES COLUMNIST

Pollster John Zogby surprised the political world back in April with a long-range prediction that John Kerry would defeat George W. Bush for president. On Monday this week, Zogby told me, he changed his mind. He now thinks the president is more likely to be re-elected because he has reinforced support from his base, including married white women.

http://www.suntimes.com/output/novak/cst-edt-novak28.html

----------------------------------------------------------------------
A social scientist's opinion of Zogby :

Intrepid Poll Watcher Drummond seems to think that Zogby simply fell ass-backward into his present notoriety. Zogby predicted 1996 accurately and came close in 2000. However, his track record is generally lousy. Zogby has a devastating methodological problem -- his polls are not conducted randomly. He uses regional quotas. He is the only one of all these polls (that make any methodology known) that employs this technique. Furthermore, Zogby does not conform his data to industry standards. Rather, he uses -- among other sources -- his previous data. Neither of the standard-setters in the polling industry accept this practice. Zogby also weights his polls to strictly conform with the 2000 partisan turnout results -- a result that BC04 has spent tens of millions of dollars to change. Zogby, a supposedly independent pollster, also called the race for Kerry...IN THE SPRING! Zogby is also one of the chief practitioners of the internet poll, which is really quite unacceptable. Because I have (unfortunately) used Zogby here at this site, I will quote the very estimable Drummand at length (consider it part of my pennance): "All in all, Zogby’s habit of confusing his personal opinion with data-driven conclusions, his admitted practice of manipulating the respondent pool and his demographic weights, by standards not accepted anywhere else, along with mixing Internet polls with telephone interview results, forces me to reject his polls as unacceptable; they simply cannot be verified, and I strongly warn the reader that there is no established benchmark for the Zogby reports, even using previous Zogby polls, because he has changed his practices from his own history."

[DoctorDoom]

Zogby has his head up his ass.

[cosmicway]

There is a certain shortening of the odds:
http://www.oddschecker.com/oddschecker/mode/o/card/cc8859x/odds/243698x/sid/377975
It's going to be close.

[tacitus]

web post a link to the article and trim it to meet copyright laws.

[Warlady]

Zogby also said that his prediction is nothing more than a gut hunch. And that he isn't basing it on anything scientific. He's a Democrat. I call this nothing more than wishful thinking. Over 10% of the electorate has voted early. And of those 51% have voted for Bush while onlyl 43% have voted for Kerry. If that trend holds Zogby is going to need an enema.

[Timberwolf]

There is a certain shortening of the odds:
http://www.oddschecker.com/oddschecker/mode/o/card/cc8859x/odds/243698x/sid/377975
It's going to be close.Doubt it...

New York is in play...New Jersey, too...as is Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and now (in all likelihood) Massachussetts may be too.

[The_Elucidator]

Doubt it...

New York is in play...New Jersey, too...as is Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and now (in all likelihood) Massachussetts may be too.
New York?

[Sinanju]

"New York?"


Yep, when Pataki won there the first time... he was down by SEVENTEEN PERCENT in the polls on the day of election....

Don't believe the polls... we are about to see a BUSH LANDSLIDE...

This election cycle is the year of the Elephant!!! and, it's about time.....

[The_Elucidator]

"New York?"


Yep, when Pataki won there the first time... he was down by SEVENTEEN PERCENT in the polls on the day of election....

Don't believe the polls... we are about to see a BUSH LANDSLIDE...

This election cycle is the year of the Elephant!!! and, it's about time.....
Nothing would make me happier than to take N.Y.

[cosmicway]

It was 3/5 on the average in the page.
Now it's 4/5.
This however may turn out to be a false indicator.

[Webruary]

Doubt it...

New York is in play...New Jersey, too...as is Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and now (in all likelihood) Massachussetts may be too.
New York and Massachussetts ? MAN MAN MAN Come off it. Lets be realistic here. We can all believe that Bush will win and we have the polls to support us, but please, New York and Massachussetts ? You are getting to be as unrealistic as them DUers who believe Kerry will win Oklahoma.

[BackFromIraq]

Zogby flip-flops like Kerry himself. One day Bush will win the next Kerry will win. I heard with early voting that has been counted that Bush was up 15%. It was on the radio and I am looking for proof.

[Sinanju]

"New York and Massachussetts ? MAN MAN MAN Come off it. Lets be realistic here. "

Ok, I am NOT stating that Bush will win NY here... but lets look at a few factors...

1) Bush HAS DOUBLED his support among african american voters... granted it is only 18% but that is the highest black voter turnout for the right since Nixon...

2) Hispanic support is soaring after 20 Hispanic groups endorsed the President

3) The support for a republican President among the Jewish community is unprecedented...

4) 9/11 happened in which city again?

5) Pataki, Koch, and Guilianni are all supporting Bush as well as celebrities from NY like Ron Silver... and believe it or not... that makes a big difference in NYC

6) Rural NY is mainly conservative... if Kerry doesn't take NYC by a big margin then he is in trouble.....


My personal opinion is that the battleground states won't be close... It will be traditionally Democratic states "flip-flopping" towards Bush.... Like New York!

[Kathy29]

Zogby predicts that he wants Kerry to win.

[ReneeM]

Zogby predicts that he wants Kerry to win.

:icon133:

[Timberwolf]

New York and Massachussetts ? MAN MAN MAN Come off it. Lets be realistic here. We can all believe that Bush will win and we have the polls to support us, but please, New York and Massachussetts ? You are getting to be as unrealistic as them DUers who believe Kerry will win Oklahoma.Web...New York - ABSOLUTELY!! Think, "WTC"...think, "Guiliani, Pataki AND Koch campaigning for the Prez"...the Massachussetts crack was apparently a poor attempt at humor...think, "Curt Schilling on GMA".

[Estragon]

Why do they keep referring to Zogby's correct calls in '96 and '00, and never mention that he missed more than half his calls in '02? I think the average margin by which his final polls were wrong was over 5%, all erring on the Dem side.

The tightening we are seeing yesterday and today is the result of 3- and 4-day tracking polls after the bogus explosives story broke Monday. It took a couple of days to rebut that, the final nail was only pounded in today by the Pentagon. Once that has had time to settle it, probably not until Monday, there will be a similar backlash against Kerry for making an issue before he had any facts at all.

I am also hearing rumors that a former Navy Secretary is about to confirm that Kerry initially received a less than honorable discharge. If that happens, stick a fork in him, he's done. Not enough time left to spin it.

Incidentally, the initial plan for the bogus RDX/HMX story was to break it Sunday on 60 Minutes, but some of the reporters leaked some details to leftist blogger Josh Marshall, who posted them on his Talking Point Memo site - and the NYT decided to go ahead with the story before being scooped.

If the plan had gone as it was supposed to, there would have been no time for Bush to get the facts out. This was another attempt by CBS to influence the election with fake news.

:flame:

[Timberwolf]

But, but, but...*sputter* * cough*...there IS NO left-wing bias in the media, Es!! You're just being paranoid!!!

Yeah, and tomorrow pigs will fly....:thumb:

[Faithful_Servant]

None of us who are public pollsters - i.e. polling for major media - wittingly produce polls that are skewed toward Democrats or Republicans. While I do have some disagreements with some of my colleagues about the over-sampling of Democrats (simply because they are more likely to respond to polls than Republicans) this is a sampling issue and not the result of any built in bias or prejudice.
:bsflag:
What they try to produce are poll results that get people to comission more polls to be taken, thus putting more money in Z's pockets. The "over-sampling is a result of the weighting that they try to apply in order to make the results as close to even as possible.

You would think that a company that bases it reputation on impartiality wouldn't be out stumping for a party for which they are polling. It gives a clear-cut impression that he's not impartial. But, his biggest customers are the MSM and they love to hear that their boy still has a chance. This keeps the viewing public watching the news instead of raking leaves.

[cowgirl]

Zogby flip-flops like Kerry himself. One day Bush will win the next Kerry will win. I heard with early voting that has been counted that Bush was up 15%. It was on the radio and I am looking for proof.
Yep I have been following Zogby every day and there is a constant flip flop. I do not believe any of these polls..

[DoctorDoom]

New York is in play...New Jersey, too...as is Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and now (in all likelihood) Massachussetts may be too.
<center><font color="red" size="6"><b>MASSACHUSETTS???</b></font></center>

Oy vey! If that happens, I'll expect a visit from Santa Claus on Christmas Eve.

[Sinanju]

"Oy vey! If that happens, I'll expect a visit from Santa Claus on Christmas Eve."


Well, better get the ol' doombots workin' on cookie baking!<!-- / message -->

[DoctorDoom]

(Speaking in a nasal sKerry-esque voice) I have a plan for that bloated intruder.

<img src="http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v349/DocDoom777/BaggedSanta.jpg" />

[Samcat]

You all need to trust the samcat poll.

[ReneeM]

Sam i have been trusting your poll for a while now:thumb:

[Webruary]

You all need to trust the samcat poll.
And what doth the unerring 32 year Samcat final figure tell us for this November 2, dare I ask today ?

[Webruary]

Here's my take on the WHOLE election thing. Very simple. Wonder if the great predictor Samcat agrees with me ( and I hope that his streak does not end this year like the Red Sox's 85 year losing streak ended this year :-)

If you look at the polls, Bush's ceiling seems to be 51%, Kerry is having a hard time going through 47%. Bush's floor is 47% and Kerry's is 45%. This HAS NOT CHANGED since 3 weeks ago and has simply been re-enforced in these new batch of polls ( wild swings included ).

Therefore the conclusion is simply this :

The majority of people who voted for Gore are going to vote for Kerry.

All the people who voted for Bush are going to vote for Bush again.

There will be a percentage of Gore supporters who will vote for Bush (I figure 3 to 6%).

CONCLUSION : Bush wins.

What sayeth the great Swami --- Samcat ?

[Samcat]

I say what I have said for the last several months, popular vote about 51 % for the President and about 300 or more electoral votes.

In all of the Presidential elections since 1972 I have picked the winner.

[Taylor]

I have to disagree with Zogby. I think Bush will win and the Democrats will try to steal the election from him again like they tried to 4 years ago.

[Warlady]

I think you're probably pretty close Sam. But I'm glad to see the polls show it so close. That gets our side out to vote out of fear of a Kerry win.

[Estragon]

I have to disagree with Zogby. I think Bush will win and the Democrats will try to steal the election from him again like they tried to 4 years ago.
Hugh Hewitt (http://hughhewitt.com/) wrote a book released early this summer: If It Isn't Close, They Can't Cheat.

I think Web has analyzed the situation soundly. Bush wins, perhaps not by the landslide he deserves, but clearly enough to make any litigation futile and obviously petty.

:thumb:

[Samcat]

I think you're probably pretty close Sam. But I'm glad to see the polls show it so close. That gets our side out to vote out of fear of a Kerry win.Well, I have been pretty consistent with my predicitons, and I don't see anything that changes my mind, and I have been predicting the President's victory for some time now.

I am going to make sure on my watch when I cast my vote for the President this Tuesday...

[Large_Al]

"In Sam I trust"

[RayChuang]

I think President Bush will win by getting around 300-310 Electoral Votes because of these factors:

1. Americans are very leery of Senator Kerry in regards to protecting us from another large-scale terrorist attack by al-Qaeda operatives.

2. Americans don't in general vote for a sitting member of Congress for President, especially one that has never held a high leadership position in Congress. Note that Lyndon Johnson was former Speaker of the House and Vice President, Richard Nixon was former Vice President, Gerald Ford was former House Minority Leader and Vice President, Jimmy Carter was former Governor of Georgia, Ronald Reagan was former Governor of California, George H.W. Bush was former Vice President, Bill Clinton was former Governor of Arkansas, and now George W. Bush was former Governor of Texas.

3. There is now a a huge factor in play: devout Christian voters. Expect 4-5 million votes for President Bush that wasn't in play in 2000, which will cause many battleground states to go for Bush. :thumb:

[Webruary]

Friends, neighbors, and countrymen, lend me your ear...

As at 10/30/2004 ( forget Zogby for the meantime ) :

Gallup Poll Bush 51 - Kerry 46
Battleground Bush 51 - Kerry 46
ABC/WaPost Bush 50 - Kerry 47
Rasmussen Bush 50 - Kerry 48
Newsweek Bush 50 - Kerry 44

Can anyone please explain to me why this is a "dead heat" ???

The only way this can be a dead heat is if the following happens :
1) The undecideds by a margin of 3 to 1 break in favor of Kerry.
2) The GOPers suddenly stay home en masse and the Dems come out en masse
3) Fraud is so prevalent that it adds at least 3% to Kerry's tally.

Which one of these is true ?

Either these pollsters don't know what they're doing or Zogby has some special heavenly insight provided by the Angel Gabriel. Otherwise I don't know how Zogby can be right.

[Webruary]

A question regarding the Margin of Error....

The 10/30 Newsweek/MSNBC Poll has Bush 50, Kerry 44

Newsweek says the Poll is within the Margin of Error... a Dead Heat as they call it

A 6 point lead is within the margin of error?!? What kind of poll has a 7% MOE?

What kind of a lead does Bush NEED to get out of the margin of error???

[Naturalized-Texan]

Apparently the MOE applies to both numbers, so add 3% to Kerry's percentage and subtract 3% from Bush's percentage, you get a "dead heat." Of course, there would be equal justification for subtracting 3% from Kerry's percentage and adding 3% to Bush's percentage to get a Bush lead of 12 points - 53% to 41%.

[DoctorDoom]

The "margin of error" means that polling methodologies are about as reliable as a five-day weather forecast.

The one uplifting thought is that after Tuesday the 77 skajillion polls per hour will cease. Halleluiah!

[ThomasIsUnderrated]

The one uplifting thought is that after Tuesday the 77 skajillion polls per hour will cease. Halleluiah!

And 78 skajillion trillion billion TV ads per hour will end! :claps: Living in the very upstate of south carolina, I have the "pleasure" of getting to watch ads for both north and south carolina races.

[Samcat]

"In Sam I trust"I appreciate the kind comment, but it is Jesus who I place my trust and it is Him that goes the glory and honor.

Thanks anyhow, Large Al.

[Samcat]

I think President Bush will win by getting around 300-310 Electoral Votes because of these factors:

1. Americans are very leery of Senator Kerry in regards to protecting us from another large-scale terrorist attack by al-Qaeda operatives.

2. Americans don't in general vote for a sitting member of Congress for President, especially one that has never held a high leadership position in Congress. Note that Lyndon Johnson was former Speaker of the House and Vice President, Richard Nixon was former Vice President, Gerald Ford was former House Minority Leader and Vice President, Jimmy Carter was former Governor of Georgia, Ronald Reagan was former Governor of California, George H.W. Bush was former Vice President, Bill Clinton was former Governor of Arkansas, and now George W. Bush was former Governor of Texas.

3. There is now a a huge factor in play: devout Christian voters. Expect 4-5 million votes for President Bush that wasn't in play in 2000, which will cause many battleground states to go for Bush. :thumb:
Good observations; however, I have to correct you in a few of those...
1960 John F Kennedy was a sitting Senator who was elected, the last from Congress to be elected to the Presidency.
Lyndon Johnson was never the Speaker of the House, that was an another Texan at the time, Sam Rayburn. Johnson was the Majority leader of the Senate in 1960, and it was his influence that got the 1960 Voting rights acts passed. Gerald Ford was indeed a House Minority Leader when Nixon picked him to be the Vice President, then became the President when Nixon resigned.
George H W Bush was the sitting Vice President who was elected President.

In many ways the election of 1960 mirrored the one in 2000, where a sitting Vice President could not win election.