Curtman
12-07-2004, 11:07 PM
With the dollar losing ground at an alarming rate and the economy heading for the tank, I am just interested to know where my fellow conservatives feel will be a safe place to shift assets for protection?
EagleTed
12-10-2004, 06:48 AM
I'm not a "top-down" investor and seldom worry about interest rates, currency markets, or crude oil prices. Companies with durable competitive advantages will always find ways to increase their prices in line with inflation. Any company which cannot isn't one I'm interested in investing in (was that enough "ins" in a row?).
The ultimate hedge against dollars falling and inflation and deflation is probably gold, for reasons illogical to me, but nonetheless that's the way it is. Think of a small portion of your portfolio in gold as an insurance policy and you should do okay. I'm not thrilled about gold, don't push it, but I do own a little bit of it. I like the stuff, don't get me wrong, it's pretty and shiny, just can't see any commodity as an investment.
Also, companies which do a large amount of business overseas should profit from a falling dollar. Exporters should do especially well.
Be warned, however, as the Fed increases interest rates, T-Bonds should follow suit, and the pressures driving down dollars will relent. (Not too bad an analysis by a "bottom-up" guy I guess)
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