The Bush Boom is now in its 50th consecutive month

[Naturalized-Texan]

The Bush Boom is now in its 50th consecutive month since the end of the Clinton Recession, thanks to two rounds of Bush tax rate cuts.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (http://www.bls.gov/schedule/archives/empsit_nr.htm), 6.65 million more Americans were employed in October 2005 than when President Bush took office, with 214,000 jobs being added in that month. The unemployment rate was 5.0% in October, at the top of the full employment range of 4% to 5%.

In addition, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce (http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/dn/nipaweb/SelectTable.asp?Popular=Y), Table 1.1.1, we are in the 17th quarter of sustained real economic growth since the end of the Clinton Recession.

All of this amazing economic expansion has taken place with relatively little inflation.

[BarkleUSA]

Shhhh, your talking facts (the “F” word to Dems) - stuff like that could derail the Democrat’s drumbeat to talk down the economy and regain political power.

“Facts are to Democrats what garlic, sunlight and a cross are to a vampire.” - Plato

[Etaoin]

The Bush Boom is now in its 50th consecutive month since the end of the Clinton Recession, thanks to two rounds of Bush tax rate cuts.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (http://www.bls.gov/schedule/archives/empsit_nr.htm), 6.65 million more Americans were employed in October 2005 than when President Bush took office, with 214,000 jobs being added in that month. The unemployment rate was 5.0% in October, at the top of the full employment range of 4% to 5%.

In addition, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce (http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/dn/nipaweb/SelectTable.asp?Popular=Y), Table 1.1.1, we are in the 17th quarter of sustained real economic growth since the end of the Clinton Recession.

All of this amazing economic expansion has taken place with relatively little inflation.

Tex, will you update us when these figures are corrected in about 30 days????

From several newsletters to which I subscribe which are oriented toward analyzing and advising not toward political propaganda.

Item 1.
The feds announced this week that they would no longer report M3, the
money supply figure. M3 has been rising recently at a 10% rate - three
times as fast as the economy it is supposed to serve. This is what is
known as "inflation" of the money supply. But there is so much
conflicting and corrupt data; it is almost impossible to know what is really going on.

The government reports a "core" rate of inflation that has no real-world
significance - it excludes the costs of transportation, housing and food!
And almost all the figures - including inflation - are distorted by the
practice of adjusting prices for "quality enhancements." As computers
become more powerful, their price per unit of computing power goes down
-
even though people may spend more money on them.
So, the feds record a lower price, while the actual price paid has gone
up. The more of these kinds of figures people have, the less they know.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXX
Item 2
Yesterday,USAToday ran a cover story quoting David Walker, the nation's top auditor:

"The United States can be likened to Rome before the fall of the empire,"
says McPaper. "Its financial condition is 'worse than advertised, ...It
has as 'broken business model'. It faces deficits in its budgets, its
balance of payments, its savings - and its leadership."

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXX
Item 3
This from the President of Everbank who is an expert on international currencies. BTW, it has been most profitable following his advice!

Yesterday, we saw a Gov't report that said that consumer inflation for
October was just 2.1% VS 2.0% in September... Do you believe this? I
don't! The headline number was 4.3%, and even that I question! So... If
the Fed uses the reports that come from the same team that they play on,
then rate hikes should end in December... However, I'll even give the
Fed some credit here, because they are not letting the wool get pulled
over their eyes! They see inflation as a problem... My problem is that
they came to the inflation fighting party way too late, and are now
paying catch up... And the markets are rewarding them for this by buying
dollars!
We also saw the NFPS (Net Foreign Security Purchases) data jump to
$101.9 Billion... Now, I have to ask myself this question... If the Gov't
cooks the books for Labor, and inflation, why wouldn't they cook them
for this data? I mean, come on... Equities are no longer being bought by
foreign investors, and when I look at the list of Major Foreign Holders
of Treasuries, I don't see any major jumps... It's all smoke and
mirrors to me...
However, that's two consecutive months that the NFPS data was strong,
and the dollar didn't rally hard on the number... Has this piece of data
jumped the shark tank? Maybe... We'll have to check it out for the next
couple of months...
So... Like I said, the dollar couldn't rally on the strong NFPS, which
I found to be strange... But I won't look at gift horse in the mouth!
Today, we get my fave... Capacity Utilization, the only forward looking
piece of data, which is expected to remain around 79% in October...
This is indicative of the "muddle through" economy, as it just cannot get
the legs to move to the lofty levels of the just a few years ago...
We'll also see Industrial Production for October, which has been awful
lately, and the Nov. Philly Fed Index... So, the currencies might receive
some direction today from these reports...

[Naturalized-Texan]

Tex, will you update us when these figures are corrected in about 30 days????
Of course I'll report them because the revised figures are almost always better than the preliminary figures and that has been the case at least for the past 2+ years. When the employment figures are updated they are almost always revised upward and the same has been true of the GDP growth figures. In fact, since I've been monitoring those data, I don't remember a single case where the figures were revised downwards.

Yesterday, we saw a Gov't report that said that consumer inflation for
October was just 2.1% VS 2.0% in September... Do you believe this? I
don't!
Of course I believe it. Except for gasoline prices, prices have barely moved in the past several months. In October, the supplies of gasoline increased as production was restored following the hurricanes and demand declined. Consequently, there was a dramatic decline in the price of gasoline in October and that dramatic decline has continued into November (The law of supply and demand works every time.). Since other prices are still nearly stable, I suspect that the decline in gasoline prices will force the rate of inflation to decline again in November.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if gasoline prices continued to fall into the $1.50-range by spring.

[omegatrump]

Of course I believe it. Except for gasoline prices, prices have barely moved in the past several months. In October, the supplies of gasoline increased as production was restored following the hurricanes and demand declined. Consequently, there was a dramatic decline in the price of gasoline in October and that dramatic decline has continued into November (The law of supply and demand works every time.). Since other prices are still nearly stable, I suspect that the decline in gasoline prices will force the rate of inflation to decline again in November.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if gasoline prices continued to fall into the $1.50-range by spring.

Wouldn't that be great if it were true. That doesn't reflect the reality of shopping in my neighborhood. Do you do your own shopping? Veggies alone have spiked from 25% to 40%. Building materials have gone crazy. Since the inquiry into the Oil Company Scams we are seeing a drop in fuel prices, (even before damage is repaired in the gulf) which leads one to believe it was a gouging opportunity for that rabble.

I'm neither a Democrat nor a Republican as I don't see any distinctive difference between the two. Both parties are owned and operated by the same money. The Mary Madeline / James Carvile charade goes on. They stage their little bickering play, then go home and make babies. They love it to be so, as the blind ignorant population eats it up.

[Naturalized-Texan]

Wouldn't that be great if it were true. That doesn't reflect the reality of shopping in my neighborhood. Do you do your own shopping?
I do enough shopping to know that inflation, except for the recent temporary spike in gasoline prices, is minimal. In fact, as recently as 2 1/2 to 3 years ago, we were in a deflationary period that was slowing the recovery from the Clinton Recession.
Veggies alone have spiked from 25% to 40%.
Fruit and vegetable prices are seasonal and are not reliable indicators of inflation. For example, from week to week the price for bananas can vary from 29 cents or less to 49 cents or more. We watch the ads and buy at the low price for fruits and vegetables as much as possible.
Building materials have gone crazy.
That has been happening since the rebuilding in Iraq caused a shortage of building materials and has been exacerbated by the rebuilding following the recent hurricanes. It's nothing more than the law of supply and demand.

Since the inquiry into the Oil Company Scams we are seeing a drop in fuel prices, (even before damage is repaired in the gulf) which leads one to believe it was a gouging opportunity for that rabble.
If you rerally believe that, then you need to learn some basic economics. The gasoline price spike was nothing more than a classical application of the law of supply and demand. The supply of gasoline was drastically reduced by the recent hurricanes that occurred at a time of high demand. There was no gouging since the oil companies' profit margins did not increase beyond the 7% to 10% range that has been in existence for many years prior to the recent spike. If there had been gouging, the profit margins would have increased accordingly. They did not - therefore, NO GOUGING!

I'm neither a Democrat nor a Republican as I don't see any distinctive difference between the two. Both parties are owned and operated by the same money. The Mary Madeline / James Carvile charade goes on. They stage their little bickering play, then go home and make babies. They love it to be so, as the blind ignorant population eats it up.
You could have fooled me after seeing you take leftist positions on every issue that comes up in this forum, including this one.

[Etaoin]

THE NOV. 17, 2005 HEADLINE ARTICLE, I WONDER WHAT THE OTHER 49 STATES WOULD REPORT!


<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=608 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=docTitle colSpan=2>Illinois incomes sinking </TD></TR><TR><TD class=sub_headline colSpan=2>Paychecks shrink more than $6,000 since 1999</TD></TR><TR><TD class=sub_headline colSpan=2>[Chicago Final Edition]</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/art/null.gif</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#003366>http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/art/null.gif</TD><TD bgColor=#003366>http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/art/null.gif</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/art/null.gif</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>Chicago Tribune - Chicago, Ill. </TD></TR><TR><TD>Author:</TD><TD>Barbara Rose, Tribune staff reporter</TD></TR><TR><TD>Date:</TD><TD>Nov 17, 2005</TD></TR><TR><TD>Start Page:</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR><TD>Section:</TD><TD>News</TD></TR><TR><TD>Text Word Count:</TD><TD>1196</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/art/null.gif</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#003366>http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/art/null.gif</TD><TD bgColor=#003366>http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/art/null.gif</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#c0c0c0 colSpan=2>http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/art/null.gif</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#c0c0c0 colSpan=2>Abstract (Document Summary)</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#c0c0c0 colSpan=2>http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/art/null.gif</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#003366>http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/art/null.gif</TD><TD bgColor=#003366>http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/art/null.gif</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/art/null.gif</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>GRAPHICS 2; MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME $46,132 Down $6.383, or 12.2 percent, from high of $52,515 in 1999 Up $526, or 1.2 percent, from $45,606 in 1990 Source: State of Working Illinois 2005 Chicago Tribune - See microfilm for complete graphic. Illinois' dismal state The loss of higher-paying manufacturing jobs has caused Illinois incomes to fall, despite an overall employment gain from jobs in service sectors such as leisure and hospitality and retail. GROWTH IN OUTPUT 1990-2004, adjusted for inflation U.S. / Illinois / Midwest EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY In thousands of employees, not seasonally adjusted 1990 through '04 - Manufacturing - Retail trade - Leisure and hospitality Source: State of Working Illinois 2005 Chicago Tribune - See microfilm for complete graphic.




</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

[dPrasse]

That sounds like the IL I see everyday .... sure , everybody has a job , even 2 ... but the gross income is down ... not all W's fault ... the Commies that run IL and the Unions have fault too ....

[Naturalized-Texan]

Etaoin: Yeah, most of the blue states like IL are in the so-called Iron Belt that has been suffering for years (decades?). The economic boom has been the greatest in the so-called Sun Belt, nearly all red states. All one needs to do to see how incomes have increased nationally is to look at the federal income tax records (http://www.taxfoundation.org/publications/show/250.html) which show that the median income increased from $26,415 in 1999 (since that was your reference point) to $29,091 in 2003 (the latest information available).

[Melz]

Here in the OH, the only ones "bragging" about such horrible economics are the liberals. We are rated 4th in businesses who want to stay/come here to do business. And yet once that report comes out, folks try their asses off to point out the bad in the situation. I am sooo sick of looking at folks reporting the bad. Perhaps things ARE bad for some folks/situations/areas.

One can stop blaming the President though and get their own personal lives/situations/areas in order.

I like that things are not as bad as people report under our current President because most of those reporting such horrible numbers are reporting situations the President has little to no control over.

[Etaoin]

Etaoin: Yeah, most of the blue states like IL are in the so-called Iron Belt that has been suffering for years (decades?). The economic boom has been the greatest in the so-called Sun Belt, nearly all red states. All one needs to do to see how incomes have increased nationally is to look at the federal income tax records (http://www.taxfoundation.org/publications/show/250.html) which show that the median income increased from $26,415 in 1999 (since that was your reference point) to $29,091 in 2003 (the latest information available).

$2600 is no significant increase when you add in the increased taxes and the inflation (despite Bush's tax reductions) . At best, those figures represent stagnation! It would have been really bad sans the tax cut!

In Phoenix, my 90 year old aunt bought a retirement home 4 years ago for $126,000. It is now on the market for $230,000.(the Appraised value). But then, there ain't no balloons or busts in govenrment statistics. Just "Kindleberger's Tricks."

[Naturalized-Texan]

$2600 is no significant increase when you add in the increased taxes and the inflation (despite Bush's tax reductions) . At best, those figures represent stagnation! It would have been really bad sans the tax cut!

In Phoenix, my 90 year old aunt bought a retirement home 4 years ago for $126,000. It is now on the market for $230,000.(the Appraised value). But then, there ain't no balloons or busts in govenrment statistics. Just "Kindleberger's Tricks."
I see that you are still a conspiracy theorist. When, oh when, will you come join me in the real world?

[Little Bit Farm]

Why is it that even though we are making significantly more money than we were five years ago, I FEEL POORER??? Why is it that not just fruits and vegetables have gone up, but EVERYTHING has gone up here significantly? Were it not for the fact that during the same five years we have gone from buying most of our groceries at the store, to producing most of them at home, we would be in REAL TROUBLE. Now I don't say all of this because I think Bush shouldn't have cut taxes. I think he has done the right thing. However, tax cuts are not enough. Why aren't we seeing some of this excess government structure demolished? Why is the government continuing to regulate farming to the point of madness in favor of large corporate farms, and it seems with the goal of pushing small local producer's of food completely out of business? Why, if we are truly booming, is it difficult, if not impossible to start a small business without jumping through a whole roster of government hoops in order to do so??? IMHO it seems as if government is bigger than when Bush took office with a Republican Congress. Instead of getting government out of our way, the government has laid it self across the railroad tracks of life even further!

I have been casting about for clues as to why our government should not have changed significantly since Bush took office. I suppose I should be like most here and just be glad we are in charge. However, I expected more. I expected significantly smaller government, building upon the legacy of Ronald Reagan. I expected true conservative choices to SCOTUS, without having to go looking for unknowns with little experience. I expected a significant return to Constitutional principles. I expected less government regulation so that farmers, and other small businesses could pursue their happiness. I expected strong borders, where our people are not harrassed and attacked by mexican army personnel. And I also expected that when our borders were threatened by our neighbors to the south that our President would make a public declaration of our nation's attitude toward such encroachment rather than turn a blind eye to it. I certainly expected significantly less money being directed toward entitlements, rather than the house vote of the other day where 22 of the members of my own party decided to side with the democrats not to approve an appropriations bill because it reduced entitlements. I say fine, let's not approve the appropriations at ALL. Let's expect people to go to work and earn a living, and let's get rid of the government in their way to do it!!!

Most of all, some day it would be really nice if we had a President who was a true conservative. A man who would lead the people from the family up. A man who espoused the working class, not the twisted way a liberal Democrat uses that phrase(always a communistic handout and stolen freedom), but rather with an eye toward how to make it easier for us to start businesses ourselves and grab our slice of what used to be called the American Dream. A President who supports truly AMERICAN businesses, not foreign businesses calling themselves American for the marketplace.

I want to live in an America like my great great grandfather did. An America where if I put my nose to the grindstone, I can do anything. An America, where I can sell milk from my farm to customers who request it. An America where I can butcher chickens and sell them to my neighbors. An America where I can dry herbs from my yard and and sell teas without a State approved kitchen. An America where if I know how to turn a wrench, or build a house, I can do it without having some special license to do so. An America where I can go to the doctor, pay him cash, and know that some insurance company is not predetermining for him how much to charge me. An America where Medical care prices have not risen beyond an average person's budget, because there is no welfare system, or insurance favoritism to make it that way. An America where I am not forced to participate in a retirement program, or in medicare. I know I'm an idealist, but WHY should my great grandfather have been able to live in an America like that, and I and my children do not and cannot??? Why must we struggle against the bit of government constantly, when he did not have to???

I know that many of these things were put in place to "solve" problems, but the solutions are far worse than the problems themselves. There was a time in America that we were on the edge of true freedom, and we were sending our technology to all parts of the globe. Necessity and in some cases doing without, led us to the technological breakthroughs that allowed us to grow into the greatest country on earth. Yet we have left our first love!!! The burst of scientific breakthroughs that made America truly great were because of freedom, NOT slavery to the state. The cotton gin, the light bulb, the telephone, are all example's of the power of freedom. Yet we have chosen to leave behind the very thing that moves us toward new discovery, and have chosen to farm out the very power that made all those things a success all over the world, the people of the United States. How have we farmed them out you ask? We have given over the very basis of America's power by relinqushing the American consumer to other nations across the globe. Until we stop making the American consumer the economical whore of the freedom hating world, America will NEVER be the same. And we will continue in this mediocrity until we all die of boredom or starvation!

Little Bit Farm

[Little Bit Farm]

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/19/business/businessspecial2/19generations.html?th=&adxnnl=1&emc=th&adxnnlx=1132423673-F76cu/V6ow/XzIIoaF7MHw&pagewanted=print

November 19, 2005

<NYT_HEADLINE version="1.0" type=" ">For a G.M. Family, the American Dream Vanishes </NYT_HEADLINE>

<NYT_BYLINE version="1.0" type=" ">By DANNY HAKIM (http://query.nytimes.com/search/query?ppds=bylL&v1=DANNY HAKIM&fdq=19960101&td=sysdate&sort=newest&ac=DANNY HAKIM&inline=nyt-per)
</NYT_BYLINE><NYT_TEXT>FLINT, Mich. - Four generations of the Roy family relied on General Motors (http://www.nytimes.com/redirect/marketwatch/redirect.ctx?MW=http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/nyt-com/html-companyprofile.asp&symb=GBM) for their prosperity.

Over more than seven decades, the company's wages bought the Roys homes, cars and once-unimaginable comforts, while G.M.'s enviable medical and pension benefits have kept them secure in their retirements.

But the G.M. that was once an unassailable symbol of the nation's industrial might is a shadow of its former self, and the post-World War II promise of blue-collar factory work being a secure path to the American dream has faded with it.

After a long slide, it now looks like the end of an era. "General Motors, when I got in there, it was like I'd died and went to heaven," said Jerry Roy, 49 - who started at G.M. in 1977 and now works on an assembly line at a plant operated by Delphi (http://www.nytimes.com/redirect/marketwatch/redirect.ctx?MW=http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/nyt-com/html-companyprofile.asp&symb=DPH), the bankrupt former G.M. parts unit that was spun off in 1999.

When Mr. Roy was hired at G.M., nearly three decades ago, his salary more than doubled from his job at a local supermarket. He traded in his five-year-old Buick for a new Chevy and since then he has done well enough to buy a pleasant house on a lake near Flint.

But now he faces the prospect of either losing his job or accepting a sharp pay cut. And for those coming after him, "it's just sad that it's ending, that it looks like this," he said. In his hometown, he added, "all these places that used to be factories are now just parking lots."

Those factories supported the Roy family for generations.

Jerry's great-grandfather, John Westley Roy, came to Michigan from Missouri in 1931, in the depths of the Depression. He built a home five blocks north of a plant operated by General Motors' AC Delco division and worked there for a decade before he was injured and retired to a farm.

Mr. Roy's grandfather, Edward, worked at the Delco plant during the war, when it was converted into a machine-gun plant: he would tell a story about a day one of the guns came off a mount and began shooting holes in the wall of a cafeteria.

Mr. Roy's father, Gerald, started at G.M.'s Fisher Body unit in 1951, was laid off after a year and a half, and then got a job in 1954 at AC Delco. Gerald's sister, uncle and future wife, Delores, worked at the plant.

The elder Mr. Roy remembers the 1950's and '60's as a golden era, when everything seemed possible.

"There were three shifts - they worked around the clock," he said of the AC Delco plant, adding, "you'd go in there and you couldn't even hardly walk."

Buoyed by such prosperity, the auto industry was the pioneer in advancing what became the American model for the social contract between workers and their employees - from the $5 a day Henry Ford offered workers in 1914 to the all-inclusive health care and pension benefits that became a mainstay of the vast expansion of the middle class in the second half of the 20th century.

In many ways, it was not the government but Detroit and other major industries, at the prodding of their unions, that created the American-style social safety net, and helped foster the shared prosperity that is now fracturing.

"The days when blue-collar work could be passed on down the family line, those days are over," said Gary N. Chaison, a professor of labor relations at Clark University in Worcester, Mass. "Where you did have automobile plants, it was always looked at as an elite job. It was hard work, but good, steady work, with wonderful benefits and good solid pay, and you were in the upper middle class."

Now, with G.M. and other domestic automakers and suppliers fighting to survive brutal global competition, Detroit is planning to cut even more manufacturing jobs. At the same time, the industry is moving to rewrite or even tear up its labor contracts in a bid to turn itself around by drastically reducing both wages and benefits. Today, Mr. Roy and Gerald, 71, who once helped him get his job, are both preparing to make sacrifices.

Robert S. Miller, the turnaround specialist who became chairman and chief executive of Delphi in July, said in an interview in October that Delphi and the United Auto Workers would have to grapple with how much to take from the retirees' pockets and how much from workers.






Yep, we're booming now! Read remaining 2/3's at link above.

Little Bit Farm

[Etaoin]

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/19/business/businessspecial2/19generations.html?th=&adxnnl=1&emc=th&adxnnlx=1132423673-F76cu/V6ow/XzIIoaF7MHw&pagewanted=print




Yep, we're booming now! Read remaining 2/3's at link above.

Little Bit Farm

You got it LB Farm!

I have been a life-long anti-union, union member! Why? Because they were never true to the principles of their founder, Samuel Gompers!

I am sure there were exceptions (somewhere in this nation) but I know of no Union that supported Sam Gomper's precept that the greatest crime was a company that did not make a profit! REMEMBER THIS, the unions did not create any wealth, nor did they train their people to perform! They merely claimed credit for that which the company provided!

The reason that I have been a life-long anti-union member is that they NEVER sought the best in their membership, but catered to the lowest common denominator. That is a position that has no resonance in the American psyche!

In a nutshell, Union leaders are nothing but parasitic socialists who seek to determine how the wealth created by someone else will be distributed for their benefit! It was the Unions that bankrupted my Airline by their greed and incompetence in exercising the power that circumstances placed in their hands!

[Naturalized-Texan]

Earlier, omegatrump accused the oil companies of price gouging. Here is some interesting info that puts oil company profits in perspective:

ExxonMobil makes 9.8 cents for every dollar in sales, compared with 13.8 cents for McDonald's and 21.2 cents for Coca-Cola.

(Source: National Review, November 21, 2005, pg. 6.)

[Etaoin]

Earlier, omegatrump accused the oil companies of price gouging. Here is some interesting info that puts oil company profits in perspective:

ExxonMobil makes 9.8 cents for every dollar in sales, compared with 13.8 cents for McDonald's and 21.2 cents for Coca-Cola.

(Source: National Review, November 21, 2005, pg. 6.)

I regret that I am merely estimating the national averages, but while the oil companies are "gouging the Public" for @ $0.10 per gallon of gasoline, the varied layers of goverment are benevolently levyng some $0.50 per gallon in taxation. It appears that in the MSM everyone but the government must be penalized!

[dPrasse]

the varied layers of goverment are benevolently levyng some $0.50 per gallon in taxation. It appears that in the MSM everyone but the government must be penalized!

Well , we all know the government knows best how to properly spend "profits" :hahaha: :hahaha: :hahaha:

[omegatrump]

Earlier, omegatrump accused the oil companies of price gouging. Here is some interesting info that puts oil company profits in perspective:

ExxonMobil makes 9.8 cents for every dollar in sales, compared with 13.8 cents for McDonald's and 21.2 cents for Coca-Cola.

(Source: National Review, November 21, 2005, pg. 6.)

NT if you weren't so pitifully naive I would engage you on your 9.8 cents. It's obvious that you don't have a clue what you are talking about. Supply and demand? How did the Hurricane disrupt supply and demand 2 weeks before it even hit Lousiana? The price of Diesel Fuel spiked as much as 2 dollars a gallon on the pretense of supply, when the tank farms were brim full with tankers backed up off shore to be unloaded here on the west coast. Who collected the 1 to 2 dollar spike? The local distributors didn't get it. OPEC was dropping the price at that time because of a glut on the market, and news of the Hurricane was all it took to have another price run.

You seem to be a good student of the Mush Fuzzball school of delusion. You have learned how to take talking point notes as he dictates them to you daily because you certainly don't have the aptitude to think for yourself.

[Etaoin]

I see that you are still a conspiracy theorist. When, oh when, will you come join me in the real world?:bdh:

Are you inferring that "Kindleberger's Tricks" constitutes a conspiracy? Kindleberger won a Nobel Prize in Economics for it! Greenspan is acknowledged to be the world's leading practitioner!

[Naturalized-Texan]

NT if you weren't so pitifully naive I would engage you on your 9.8 cents. It's obvious that you don't have a clue what you are talking about. Supply and demand? How did the Hurricane disrupt supply and demand 2 weeks before it even hit Lousiana? The price of Diesel Fuel spiked as much as 2 dollars a gallon on the pretense of supply, when the tank farms were brim full with tankers backed up off shore to be unloaded here on the west coast. Who collected the 1 to 2 dollar spike? The local distributors didn't get it. OPEC was dropping the price at that time because of a glut on the market, and news of the Hurricane was all it took to have another price run.

You seem to be a good student of the Mush Fuzzball school of delusion. You have learned how to take talking point notes as he dictates them to you daily because you certainly don't have the aptitude to think for yourself.
With your ad hominem attack, you merely prove the correctness of my argument.

BTW, the major spike in gasoline prices occurred AFTER Katrina closed down nearly all of the refineries between the Sabine River and Mobile, AL, and destroyed many offshore drilling rigs, many of which are still not operating. Rita exacerbated the problem by closing down many refineries in the Beaumonr-Port Arthur-Orange area. Fortunately most of those refineries are now producing, increasing the supply of gasoline as demand is declining.

Granted, there was a runup in gasoline prices during the summer that coincided with a major increase in the price of crude oil on the world market, the major cause of which was the huge increase in the demand for crude for China.

All of the above is the result of the primary law of economics of which you are certainly uninformed - the law of supply and demand. That law works every time.

[Etaoin]

:bdh:

Are you inferring that "Kindleberger's Tricks" constitutes a conspiracy? Kindleberger won a Nobel Prize in Economics for it! Greenspan is acknowledged to be the world's leading practitioner!

I eagerly await your commentary! I am seeking a position where we can agree on a standard with which we both agree. E.G. Demonstrably, the governmet cooks its figures, so how can we arrive at a discussion in which the figures are not 'COOKED"?

[Naturalized-Texan]

I eagerly await your commentary! I am seeking a position where we can agree on a standard with which we both agree. E.G. Demonstrably, the governmet cooks its figures, so how can we arrive at a discussion in which the figures are not 'COOKED"?
From my research I've determined that Kindleberger was an anti-free market, anti-growth economist who served in the Truman and LBJ administrations. Based on my research, his opinions have little or no credibility.

I'll stick to the free-market, pro-growth economists like Milton Friedman, Arthur Laffer, Dusty Rhodes, Larry Kudlow, Bruce Bartlett, Stephen Moore, etc., who have so instrumental in building the booming economy that we have experienced since 1982. BTW, I am honored to have met the first three of those free-market, pro-growth economists that I listed above.

[Naturalized-Texan]

:bdh:

Are you inferring that "Kindleberger's Tricks" constitutes a conspiracy? Kindleberger won a Nobel Prize in Economics for it! Greenspan is acknowledged to be the world's leading practitioner!
You are mistaken. I looked it up. Kindleberger never won a Nobel Prize in Economics. Your credibility just took a hit.

[Etaoin]

I do believe that it was in an article by Dr. Sjuggerud that I read or at least thought I read that he received the prize. I've been unable to access the links to his article(s) for some reason or other. If I erred, it was undoubtedly due to the wide regard in which he was held. Which, if I erred on the award, does not alter the fact that Greenspan played the tricks masterfully!

[Naturalized-Texan]

I do believe that it was in an article by Dr. Sjuggerud that I read or at least thought I read that he received the prize. I've been unable to access the links to his article(s) for some reason or other. If I erred, it was undoubtedly due to the wide regard in which he was held. Which, if I erred on the award, does not alter the fact that Greenspan played the tricks masterfully!
If Greenspan "played the tricks," for which there is absolutely no evidence, he certainly did what was necessary to keep the economy growing without any significant inflation, for which we should give thanks, especially at Thanksgiving.

[Naturalized-Texan]

Etaoin: I have read several books on economics and I have read hundreds of articles and papers on economics and not once have I seen a reference to either Kindleberger or Sjuggerud. In fact, I had never even heard of either one of them until you mentioned them. Since virtually all of my reading has been by and about free-market, pro-growth economists and economics, it's not at all surprising that I never heard of them.

[DesertFox]

I don't know why some people feel poorer. I'm making $15k less than I was two years ago and am getting by just fine. The important thing was refinancing my house and paying off two cars.

The Phoenix area has been exploding for the last 10 years. My house increased in value by $35k over a 4-year period, and it isn't one of those big expensive places.

It has always been true that real estate is where it's at. If you're renting, you're a fool.

[Etaoin]

Etaoin: I have read several books on economics and I have read hundreds of articles and papers on economics and not once have I seen a reference to either Kindleberger or Sjuggerud. In fact, I had never even heard of either one of them until you mentioned them. Since virtually all of my reading has been by and about free-market, pro-growth economists and economics, it's not at all surprising that I never heard of them.

Tex, most of those with whom I subscribe, follow and/or agree with are Austrian Economists. Austrian economists certainly are free marketeers, but have no faith in the durability of market manipulations by central bankers as history is littered with the debacles they have brought about. They maintain that the market will always return to the mean and the greater the distortion preventing it, the greater the pain when it happens.

John Law was much the same as Greenspan with his fiat currency but after being lauded for his huge successes in stimulating the French economy, he ended up destroying the French Empire. Greenspan has created more $$$ and credit than all the FEDs since their formation in 1913. Ben "Helicopter" Bernanke stated a few years ago that rather than permit a deflation the printing presses could run all night and the greenbacks could be distributed from a helicopter, consequently, his nickname. Greenspan's easy credit and excessive printing of greenbacks may work to keep an economy "on an even keel" didn't even do that, it fueled first a stock market balloon which finally burst and then to prevent a healthy bankrupting of bad investments, he fueled a Housing balloon. The thing about both of these balloons that really bothers me is that the FED's policies have penalized those who saved their pennies and dollars as the rate of inflation far exceeded the return on savings and then subsidized the speculator and the improvident. I'm sorry, I may be looking at the glass as half empty, but at some point this whole fiat structure will collapse. True, it may not happen before both you and I pass on, but happen it will.

My concern is that when it does happen, does this nation have the intestinal fortitude to retain its liberties in times of hardship....again, I'm afraid that I'm a pessimist. Many would try, but we are no longer a republic and in a democracy, do you believe they will not sell their liberties for a mess of pottage? Our schools are not producing the individualists and patriots needed to survive and conservativism is not growing fast enough to carry the load.

TEX...I HOPE I AM DEAD WRONG AND YOU ARE 100% RIGHT....for the sake of my decendantsl

No government in history has had the discipline to make a fiat currency retain value!

BTW "Kindleberger's Trick" essentially says that a central banker when faced with an economic problem doesn't really have to DO anything if he can convince the market that he WILL do something. And then, when actually FORCED to do something, a miniscule action may be sufficient so you don't have to use the hammer. This was the trick that Greenspan used SOOO masterfully at his press conferences and FED meetings. The problem is (I think) that the trick is widely recognized now and will no longer work, sooo what are Bernanke's options since I don't believe there is enough of Greenspan's aura left to carry him.

[DesertFox]

:rolleyes:

I'll take my chances, Carl.

[Little Bit Farm]

Carl, people have very short memories. Good post Etaoin!

Little Bit Farm

[2nd_Amendment]

There you go again...

Trying to drag Tex, kicking and screaming, into reality. Surely you have learned by now it can't be done? OTOH, his fantasy threads do provide a good opportunity for rational rebuttals.

I especially love his claims regarding inflation. The wife's store has been tracking food costs(of course) for nearly 40 years. The rise in food costs over the last two years exceeds the rise in costs during the Carter Admin. Actual inflation is something like 30% over 30 months...scary stuff. Of course if you ignore it I suppose it's not too bad...

Since her store runs some of the lowest prices around and keeps pace with the local Wally Wart it's safe to assume this is a consistent inflationary factor. Add in gas, which with the current decline in price is now only inflated 100% over where it was 2 years ago, and housing costs which are 30% over two years ago in many places, and one has to wonder exactly what loon is producing these nutty figures.

Better, regarding housing costs: In 2002 T111 was $16 a sheet. It's $30 now. 2x4's have doubled. Oxboard has nearly doubled, dimensional shingles are up 40%. Carr siding has more than doubled... In other words replacement costs/new construction are exceeding the rise in new home sales prices. Think about that...

None of this is up for debate. It's actual factual cost. Anybody can check and see. Some places it's worse and some it's better, but it's higher everywhere than it was very recently. The only thing up for debate is why some people feel such a blind partisan urge to deny reality?

[MSGT]

:rolleyes:

I'll take my chances, Carl.
Your chances are very good. They have been talking about the housing 'bubble' for years. My brother bought a house in SoCal for 350k 1 1/2 years ago, it's now worth 550k.

[Little Bit Farm]

There you go again...

Trying to drag Tex, kicking and screaming, into reality. Surely you have learned by now it can't be done?

2nd Amendment, I just don't think Tex does much shopping. The wife probably does it all. However, I am a wife, and I'm here to tell you that EVERYTHING has been going up, and that 30% figure is not surprising to me in the least! Tex also doesn't take into account that all his little cries of "supply and demand" don't make one hill of beans of difference, as all of those things are factored into the economy anyway. If oil goes up because of short supply then the cost is passed to the consumer in every stage of commerce. If steel goes up, and it HAS, it has the same effect. It's like Tex thinks just because it's "supply and demand" it doesn't have an effect on overall inflation!

Little Bit Farm

[2nd_Amendment]

Not only does the cost of fuel get passed on to the consumer but there are other "costs". Numerous items became temporarily unavailable when gas was at the $3 a gallon point. Shipping was simply too expensive. Now this was mainly specialty items, but the point was made very clear: Anything can become hard to find literally over night if transportation costs get above certain points.

Tex, and many(maybe most) others don't have any grasp of what a fine line we walk at the best of times with regard to our consumer markets. Our infrastructure is predicated on a very limited model of "the way things work". If things cease to work that way then our system falls apart. Those of us in or with ties to distribution watched it fray at the edges this time. Next time? it won't take much more to pull it all apart...and I am certain Tex will still be telling us how wonderful things are.

[star2589]

The Bush Boom is now in its 50th consecutive month since the end of the Clinton Recession, thanks to two rounds of Bush tax rate cuts.

yes, reducing revenue while increasing spending is just *great* for the economy.

[Melz]

So is everyone saying that Tex's numbers are inaccurate or just irrelevent? Inaccurate, no. Irrelevent depends on the person determining what is relevent. Doesn't the CPI include the same sort of statistics no matter who is President? Then a factor including those prices is relevent when comparing administrations right? I always wondered why gasoline was not included in the CPI, but if these things were not included in pricing during other administrations, why include them in this comparison. He isn't trying to say that everyone's personal economic outcome is positive or that everyone should have even benefited. It seems that he is saying that, comparing apples to apples, it is as good or better during the Bush administration.

[DesertFox]

Melz, they're just ignoring the good times, either because they don't like Bush or because they want to sound wise, like they know or appreciate something the rest of us don't. 50 months is over four years. If this were the fourteenth year these guys would still be saying what they're saying now, which is pretty-much what they said in the fourth month after the economy turned around. Nothing will ever persuade them. They don't want to be persuaded.

It's been known forever that business runs in cycles. Boom and bust. Good times are never permanent. Neither are bad times. But MSGT points out something I've noticed, also: We've been hearing for years now about how the "housing bubble" was about to burst. We've been hearing that since the Seventies about California's housing bubble, since the Eighties about the Pacific Northwest's housing bubble, since the Nineties about the Southeast's housing bubble and since 2k about the Southwest's housing bubble. The Northeast has a permanent housing bubble.

No doubt all these "bubbles" will burst someday. But after 35 years of The Sky Is Falling, The Sky Is Falling, one finds it just a little hard to take seriously.

[Naturalized-Texan]

Melz, they're just ignoring the good times, either because they don't like Bush or because they want to sound wise, like they know or appreciate something the rest of us don't. 50 months is over four years. If this were the fourteenth year these guys would still be saying what they're saying now, which is pretty-much what they said in the fourth month after the economy turned around. Nothing will ever persuade them. They don't want to be persuaded.
They are perennial doom-and-gloomers to whom the glass is always half-empty.

It's been known forever that business runs in cycles. Boom and bust. Good times are never permanent. Neither are bad times. But MSGT points out something I've noticed, also: We've been hearing for years now about how the "housing bubble" was about to burst. We've been hearing that since the Seventies about California's housing bubble, since the Eighties about the Pacific Northwest's housing bubble, since the Nineties about the Southeast's housing bubble and since 2k about the Southwest's housing bubble. The Northeast has a permanent housing bubble.

No doubt all these "bubbles" will burst someday. But after 35 years of The Sky Is Falling, The Sky Is Falling, one finds it just a little hard to take seriously.
Since the Reagan tax-rate cuts of 1982, the U.S. has had 261 months of positive economic growth and only 15 months of negative growth (2 recessions: 9 months in 1991 resulting from GHW Bush's ill-advised tax increases and the 6-month recession that GW Bush inherited from BJ Clinton). And during that period, inflation has not been relatively low.

Consumer Confidence Up As Gas Prices Fall (http://www.breitbart.com/news/2005/11/29/D8E67A200.html)

Consumer confidence soared in November as declining gasoline prices contributed to a stronger-than-expected reading that could bode well for the holiday shopping season.

The Conference Board said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index rose to 98.9 this month from 85.2 in October. Analysts had expected a reading of 90. The better-than-expected results reversed a two-month decline.

"A decline of more than 40 cents in gasoline prices this month and the improving job outlook have combined to help restore consumers' confidence," Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center, said in a statement.

New Home Sales Hit Record Level in Oct. (http://www.breitbart.com/news/2005/11/29/D8E66UD07.html)

Sales of new homes soared at a record pace in October in what could be a last hurrah for the booming housing market.

The Commerce Department said that sales of new single-family homes shot up by 13 percent last month, the biggest one-month gain in more than 12 years. The increase pushed sales to an all-time high seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.42 million units.

The increase confounded analysts who had been predicting that new home sales would decline by 1.8 percent, reflecting continued increases in mortgage rates. It was possible that the unexpected surge reflected a final rush by buyers to get into the market before mortgage rates climb higher.

[Naturalized-Texan]

Tex, will you update us when these figures are corrected in about 30 days????
As promised, here are the revised GDP growth figures for the 3rd Quarter. Note: As I predicted, the figures were revised upward:

US economy roars despite hurricanes; growth upgraded to 4.3 percent (http://www.breitbart.com/news/2005/11/30/051130163113.y2qc1yav.html)

The US economy weathered the impact of hurricanes better than experts had expected, growing at a 4.3 percent annual pace in the third quarter, the government said in an upward revision to its prior estimate.

The Commerce Department figure for gross domestic product (GDP) was stronger than last month's estimate of 3.8 percent growth and ahead of the the 4.0 percent expected by Wall Street economists. The agency will make its final estimate next month.

The report suggests the economy overcame the impact of hurricanes Katrina and Rita, which shut down much of US oil operations in the Gulf of Mexico and devastated areas around New Orleans, Louisiana. By squeezing energy supplies, the storms also led to a surge in oil prices.

"The fact that we added a 10th quarter of above-average growth amidst the hurricane devastation and the highest energy prices ever recorded is awesome," said Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics.

{More at the link above.}

[Etaoin]

<TABLE width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>US economy roars despite hurricanes; growth upgraded to 4.3 percent
</TD><TD align=right></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

The US economy weathered the impact of hurricanes better than experts had expected, growing at a 4.3 percent annual pace in the third quarter, the government said in an upward revision to its prior estimate.

The Commerce Department figure for gross domestic product (GDP) was stronger than last month's estimate of 3.8 percent growth and ahead of the the 4.0 percent expected by Wall Street economists. The agency will make its final estimate next month.

http://www.breitbart.com/images/2005/10/30/051130163113.y2qc1yav/SGE.JXH59.301105164408.photo00.quicklook.default-245x158.jpg

"Less was from autos, and more was from investment and housing stock and capital and business equipment, things that will help with longer term growth."

"The report showed that US economy was very buoyant in the third quarter despite hurricanes thanks to dynamic domestic demand," said Marie-Pierre Ripert, an economist at IXIS Corporate and Investment Bank.

Nonetheless, Ripert said she expected some slowing in consumer spending in the fourth quarter that will not be fully offset by increased manufacturing and services activity.

"As a result, we are expecting GDP growth to decelerate in the fourth quarter" to a 2.8 percent growth pace, she said.

Other analysts agreed, saying debt-strapped US consumers are likely to retrench.

"Third-quarter economic growth was once again supported by strong consumer spending," said Joe Liro, an economist at Stone and McCarthy Research.

"Unfortunately, the consumer is not in position to provide such support in the fourth quarter, thus we anticipate a sharp slowing of fourth-quarter economic growth."

The upward revision was largely due to higher spending on non-durable goods and to more investments in homes and in business equipment and software.

As in the earlier estimate, growth was powered by consumer spending and business investments.

Consumer expenditures accounted for 2.97 percentage points of the growth, and showed an increase of 4.2 percent in the quarter.

Business investment accounted for 0.91 percentage points of growth in the quarter, and real estate was responsible for 0.50 percentage points.

These were partly offset by growth in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP.

A key measure of inflation was revised lower. The core personal consumption expenditure price index rose at a 1.2 percent annual rate compared with an earlier estimate of 1.3 percent.



THE AUSTRIAN ECONOMISTS ESTIMATE THE INFLATION RATE TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF 6%, WHICH I FIND TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY CORRECT IN MY EXPENDITURES.

The report noted however that US corporate profits from current production, meanwhile, fell 3.4 percent, or 45.5 billion dollars annualized, in the third quarter on losses due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

Real disposable incomes are up a modest 1.1 percent in the past year. XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXX


SPIN CITY MAN, SPIN CITY! Record bankruptcies every year, Refi to payoff excessive debt, (basically a sound and rational move) but when used to further SPEND is disastrous in the longer run. (I know, "in the long run, we'll all be dead" ...Keynes in the 30's when his economics were challenged)!

We have the glowing Government reports (To soothe the savage beast {the electorate}) but there are the daily bankruptcies of those firms that were the major suppliers of the prosperity this nation experienced.

This economy is totally out of whack but I must admit that Greenspan did a magnificent job in juggling to prevent deflation. But, WHEN, not IF, the economy reverts to the mean there will be serious hurt to those who have not anticipated and prepared for it. This is what we "doom and gloomers" keep warning about. Anyone who has read the history of those fiat currencies that preceded the ascendancy of the $$$, understand that the FED is going to run out of tricks and then reality will strike.

If you are long on the market, then I wish you GOOD LUCK!

[2nd_Amendment]

Melz, they're just ignoring the good times, either because they don't like Bush or because they want to sound wise, like they know or appreciate something the rest of us don't.

So prices are not up? Fuel prices have not doubled? Lumber and steel prices have not doubled? Food costs are not up 30% or more, all over the past two to three years? It's very easy to confirm, DF, either yes or no. So acknowledging this means I don't like Bush(Neer have, actually, he's just the lesser of two evils) or maybe it's unwise? We should just ignore it and it'll go away? Maybe we do know something the rest don't, simply by virtue of taking the time to look?

50 months is over four years. If this were the fourteenth year these guys would still be saying what they're saying now, which is pretty-much what they said in the fourth month after the economy turned around. Nothing will ever persuade them. They don't want to be persuaded.

Right. The facts don't agree with government data so the problem lies with those who look at the facts. Again, I ask: Is GM not laying off 30,000+? Are there not other major layoffs? Are prices for important goods not up? Are some of us somehow misreading the bottom line on theses statements and bills? If so let me know as I have about 100k going out shortly on a job that I can really, seriously reduce...according to the government logic.

We've been hearing for years now about how the "housing bubble" was about to burst. We've been hearing that since the Seventies about California's housing bubble, since the Eighties about the Pacific Northwest's housing bubble, since the Nineties about the Southeast's housing bubble and since 2k about the Southwest's housing bubble. The Northeast has a permanent housing bubble.

We live in a time when people are getting 125% LTV mortgages 5 times their annual income. These same people consistently show up as having 10k or more in CC debt and zero savings. Interest rates are climbing, construction costs are radically climbing and some areas of the country have already shown softness in the housing market. As I keep saying, there's two sides to what is happening in the US today. Look at both sides.

[DesertFox]

I know perfectly well there's a down side. There always is. From where I'm standing, it seems like the ones who refuse to see both sides is you fellers. I've yet to hear any of you say a positive thing about today's economy. I recollect Carl sneering at "stuff." Always doom and gloom. Always.

[2nd_Amendment]

Where is the positive side? Seriously? Is being able to buy a home a positive, even if the debt is massive? Probably...to some. Is having huge amounts of credit at our fingertips a positive? Some would say yes. Is burgeoning government spending, mostly to further meddle in private lives and industry, a positive? I know some who love it.

If I sell that house at a profit then it's good times. if I use that credit responsibly it's good times. If I'm not, yet, one of those stepped on by FedGov it's good times. Or if I'm one of those who have removed themselves from the game and eliminated the unsecured debt and actually have equity in a home then it might be good times, too.

The fact is, though, I don't know many people who think these are good times if you start diging below the surface. They are scared of their debt and scared of their mortgage and scared for their jobs. People are angry about immigration and taxation and stupid spending... And who do they blame? Bush. The Repubs. And what do you think that equals? Dem victories in the next couple elections, and then all the wheels really will fall off.

THAT is the doom and gloom I am preaching and the one I dread.

[2nd_Amendment]

I know perfectly well there's a down side. There always is.

Oh, you should try and educate Tex on that...

[Timberwolf]

Where is the positive side? Seriously? Is being able to buy a home a positive, even if the debt is massive? Probably...to some. Is having huge amounts of credit at our fingertips a positive? Some would say yes. Is burgeoning government spending, mostly to further meddle in private lives and industry, a positive? I know some who love it.

If I sell that house at a profit then it's good times. if I use that credit responsibly it's good times. If I'm not, yet, one of those stepped on by FedGov it's good times. Or if I'm one of those who have removed themselves from the game and eliminated the unsecured debt and actually have equity in a home then it might be good times, too.

The fact is, though, I don't know many people who think these are good times if you start diging below the surface. They are scared of their debt and scared of their mortgage and scared for their jobs. People are angry about immigration and taxation and stupid spending... And who do they blame? Bush. The Repubs. And what do you think that equals? Dem victories in the next couple elections, and then all the wheels really will fall off.

THAT is the doom and gloom I am preaching and the one I dread.
Absolutely, 2A....and who's REALLY to blame? Those lamebrained individuals who live outside their means. But, who do those who live outside their means blame? Anyone and everyone but themselves...and right now, President Bush and the Republicans are convenient targets (and yes, they've made themselves the convenient targets they've become).

It all boils down to "coveting what thy neighbor possesses". Sound familiar?

[Teenager]

Where is the positive side? Seriously? Is being able to buy a home a positive, even if the debt is massive? Probably...to some. Is having huge amounts of credit at our fingertips a positive? Some would say yes. Is burgeoning government spending, mostly to further meddle in private lives and industry, a positive? I know some who love it.

If I sell that house at a profit then it's good times. if I use that credit responsibly it's good times. If I'm not, yet, one of those stepped on by FedGov it's good times. Or if I'm one of those who have removed themselves from the game and eliminated the unsecured debt and actually have equity in a home then it might be good times, too.

The fact is, though, I don't know many people who think these are good times if you start diging below the surface. They are scared of their debt and scared of their mortgage and scared for their jobs. People are angry about immigration and taxation and stupid spending... And who do they blame? Bush. The Repubs. And what do you think that equals? Dem victories in the next couple elections, and then all the wheels really will fall off.

THAT is the doom and gloom I am preaching and the one I dread.

All I know is that buying a house right now is a good idea. Interest rates are low(or they were over the summer and fall). My brother has just bought three over this year.

[Naturalized-Texan]

I know perfectly well there's a down side. There always is. From where I'm standing, it seems like the ones who refuse to see both sides is you fellers. I've yet to hear any of you say a positive thing about today's economy. I recollect Carl sneering at "stuff." Always doom and gloom. Always.
Yep! Always doom and gloom. Always.

I don't know how they can sleep at night since they always seem to live in fear. Oh, well. If they refuse to enjoy today's booming economy, that's their problem, not mine.

[2nd_Amendment]

Yep! Always doom and gloom. Always.

I don't know how they can sleep at night since they always seem to live in fear. Oh, well. If they refuse to enjoy today's booming economy, that's their problem, not mine.

As someone whose businesses actually have to function in today's staggering economy I do so wish you would buy a clue.

As someone who does not participate in what the American Dream seems to have mrphed into I sleep very well at nite. This doesn't stop me from pointing to the problems with your rose-colored fantasies.

[2nd_Amendment]

All I know is that buying a house right now is a good idea. Interest rates are low(or they were over the summer and fall). My brother has just bought three over this year.

It MAY be a good idea. If you're buying at a good price and it doesn't exceed your income potential and if you've got a good note on it. OTOH, if you've borrowed more than the house is worth and more than your income can support with other reasonable debt and it's done on a variable rate loan you have BIG potential problems that may well be completely out of your control.

Even in the worst of times smart people can do well. It's simply a matter of making smart choices and there are way too many people today making dumb ones, encouraged by those who seem convinced nothing bad can ever happen again...

[2nd_Amendment]

But, who do those who live outside their means blame? Anyone and everyone but themselves...and right now, President Bush and the Republicans are convenient targets (and yes, they've made themselves the convenient targets they've become).

It all boils down to "coveting what thy neighbor possesses". Sound familiar?

BINGO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

And we're all going to pay the price. Except maybe Tex, who I am sure will still be talking up how wonderful things are when they are exactly the same under a Dem POTUS...right? No mere partisanship will make a difference there, eh?

[Etaoin]

Yep! Always doom and gloom. Always.

I don't know how they can sleep at night since they always seem to live in fear. Oh, well. If they refuse to enjoy today's booming economy, that's their problem, not mine.

Tex, I am the PRIME PESSIMIST! I don't owe anyone one red cent. I am concerned for those who have bought into the phony economics of a perverted keynes. It is no longer a Keynesism Economy, rather one created by Greenspan. Greenspan has proven to be a masterful juggler of the economy while he has, in effect, (IMHO) DESTROYED IT.

I do not believe, that, in the long run, you can just print greenbacks of whatever denomination, and have a viable economy. The fact that other nations have bought into the swindle will only exacerbate the adjustment when it becomes unavoidable!

[omegatrump]

Reason is lost on those who eschew wisdom. The financial manipulators, and the profit takers have every thing to gain by slipping the big britches on the gullible public. "slipping the big britches on them", a Term I learned from a Texas used car salesman. He'd set in his office until somebody would drive into his little lot, he'd stand up and hitch up his pants and say, "watch me slip the big britches on em". What did it mean?

Kind of like when you get those phone calls offering you free money to refinance your house, or get those pre qualified credit card announcements in the mail that tell you how important you are and tell you about all the things you can do with that money at 29%. Or even better than that it's like when you read the Government Reports that tell's you what a great job the Government flunkies are doing at creating wealth. "Look at what your elected officials are doing for you". All the numbers are up! "You all sure did good by electing Us".

"You sure look important setting in that shiny new car, Wow, don't you look the part, You sure do look like you got it now".

HA, what a pitiful, pitiful condition. I remember when I was young, I had no father to help direct me in my financial affairs, (he died in my early teens), easy pray for some shyster to fill my head full of crap. Then I look around today and see the greed, and lust driven culture that has become America's "Purpose". Woe to the youth of this nation who are being set up to carry this load of crap. Our short term, short sighted fix on everything will most assuredly one day face a serious adjustment.

[Naturalized-Texan]

Tex, I am the PRIME PESSIMIST! I don't owe anyone one red cent. I am concerned for those who have bought into the phony economics of a perverted keynes. It is no longer a Keynesism Economy, rather one created by Greenspan. Greenspan has proven to be a masterful juggler of the economy while he has, in effect, (IMHO) DESTROYED IT.
The proof is in the pudding! We have had unprecedented prosperity with very little inflation since Greenspan took over as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. He was partially responsible for that prosperity along with the Reagan and GW Bush supply-side/pro-growth tax rate cuts.

I do not believe, that, in the long run, you can just print greenbacks of whatever denomination, and have a viable economy. The fact that other nations have bought into the swindle will only exacerbate the adjustment when it becomes unavoidable!
I see that you are still under the mistaken impression that the U.S. is printing excessive greenbacks. If that were true, we would have more than the minimal inflation that we have been experiencing since 1982 and we wouldn't have had a deflationary period during the first 2 years of the current Bush Administration. Fortunately, in the past 3 years the money supply has kept pace with the demands of a booming economy. That's the main reason that inflation is now minimal (except for the temporary spike due to the increased price of fuel caused by the shortages produced by the recent hurricanes).

[DesertFox]

Gloom and doom. Gloom and doom. In the Sixties people wailed because of inflation much worse than what we now have. In the Seventies they wailed because of staglation, FAR worse than what we have now. In the Eighties all the doomsayers said the good times couldn't last. In the late Eighties they wailed at Bush I's "corruption." Then came Clinton. More wailing. More corruption. George W. Bush has restored consumer confidence. Inflation is nowhere near as bad as it's been in the lifetimes of many, if not most, of us.

There's always something to wail about. Even if everybody in America were suddenly a millionaire, owed no credit, had no debt and drove a Mercedes, somebody would find something to wail about. Somebody would say we're all evil, or simpletons, or something, for wanting "stuff." Somebody would say it can't last. Somebody would predict dire straits just around the corner. Eventually they'll be right. Someday things will get bad. It's inevitable. But they aren't any worse now than they've been in my lifetime at several points, and in fact are appreciably better. I see no reason whatever to wail and gnash teeth. That ain't Pollyanna, but simple common sense.

Sorry, guys, but you've been wailing for four years. You'll still be wailing in four more no matter how good things go.

[Timberwolf]

Gloom and doom. Gloom and doom. In the Sixties people wailed because of inflation much worse than what we now have. In the Seventies they wailed because of staglation, FAR worse than what we have now. In the Eighties all the doomsayers said the good times couldn't last. In the late Eighties they wailed at Bush I's "corruption." Then came Clinton. More wailing. More corruption. George W. Bush has restored consumer confidence. Inflation is nowhere near as bad as it's been in the lifetimes of many, if not most, of us.

There's always something to wail about. Even if everybody in America were suddenly a millionaire, owed no credit, had no debt and drove a Mercedes, somebody would find something to wail about. Somebody would say we're all evil, or simpletons, or something, for wanting "stuff." Somebody would say it can't last. Somebody would predict dire straits just around the corner. Eventually they'll be right. Someday things will get bad. It's inevitable. But they aren't any worse now than they've been in my lifetime at several points, and in fact are appreciably better. I see no reason whatever to wail and gnash teeth. That ain't Pollyanna, but simple common sense.

Sorry, guys, but you've been wailing for four years. You'll still be wailing in four more no matter how good things go.
DF...pretty sure you're not responding to me in particular, but to some of us in general.

That being said, I have NO problem with anyone "wanting stuff". I want stuff but realize that if I can't afford it, I would do well to NOT buy it on credit. I do believe that Greenspan and the FRB have been manipulating interest rates to prevent the markets from correcting, as they must do. When the "inevitable" DOES happen, I truly believe it will be on par with the Great Depression. That is why I'm doing my level best to make sure I can "weather the storm" through accumulating gold and silver...not going overboard, but I'm acquiring hard assets because, as you said, "someday things will get bad". When they do, I want to be prepared for it...only tellin' others to do the same.

Right now, and for the past decade or so, I've been doing well (some years better than others), but it isn't going to last forever. Those that are living outside their means (and, IMHO, driving this economy) are going to pay a very steep price when the feces hits the fan.

[omegatrump]

Gloom and doom. Gloom and doom. In the Sixties people wailed because of inflation much worse than what we now have. In the Seventies they wailed because of staglation, FAR worse than what we have now. In the Eighties all the doomsayers said the good times couldn't last. In the late Eighties they wailed at Bush I's "corruption." Then came Clinton. More wailing. More corruption. George W. Bush has restored consumer confidence. Inflation is nowhere near as bad as it's been in the lifetimes of many, if not most, of us.

There's always something to wail about. Even if everybody in America were suddenly a millionaire, owed no credit, had no debt and drove a Mercedes, somebody would find something to wail about. Somebody would say we're all evil, or simpletons, or something, for wanting "stuff." Somebody would say it can't last. Somebody would predict dire straits just around the corner. Eventually they'll be right. Someday things will get bad. It's inevitable. But they aren't any worse now than they've been in my lifetime at several points, and in fact are appreciably better. I see no reason whatever to wail and gnash teeth. That ain't Pollyanna, but simple common sense.

Sorry, guys, but you've been wailing for four years. You'll still be wailing in four more no matter how good things go.

Your not a bad fellow Foxy, and you may be directing your post at me which is quite allright. But be honest with the issue for just a moment. Is a Debt Driven economy anything at all that our Nation can rely on? I think especially of our youth. Is ownership such a bad thing? I speak of having the title in your pocket. History teaches ME "the borrower is a slave to the lender", every child born in this country comes out of the womb buried in debt before he draws his first breath. The "stuff" industries have it calculated to produce "stuff" that barely lasts until it's half paid for (for those who just have to have it), which is their problem of course. The debt peddlers play on the weakness inherent in all of us human types to continually bait us into financing a new round of landfill commodity. It's a huge industry but where does the money come from to keep this industry going and why? Why is it so necessary to perpetuate this debt? How does a simple bank secure loan capital? Investors you say? Not hardly, investors account for a small fraction of what a bank puts out on loan. The Fed is the big pocket.

So here is what it sounds like you are endorsing.

Prov 22:7 says, "The rich ruleth over the poor; and the borrower is servant to the lender". Isn't that the foundation for your idea of the good times. I was reading just the other day where in the great depression property lost as much as 90% of it's value. So let's say you are a typical American today, If you are lucky and been prudent in your dealings you have a 25% interest in your home the bank owns 75%. The thing is of course, that your 25% interest in your home depends entirely on your ability to maintain your monthly interest payment to the bank and on the value of that property staying constant at least. So the rich decide to stage a depression,in who's pocket will your 25% interest ultimately end up? Just another form of profit taking! Is that what you are all about foxy? Did you get that from the debt peddlers, and the false conservatives that have turned a blind eye on our nations future? Can you see why the debt peddlers want you to live in a false security?

[DesertFox]

Baloney, omega. You owe what you, personally, contract to pay. No kid is born in debt. Debt does not drive the economy -- consumer confidence does. Rich people don't "stage" depressions. If you don't like the mortgage rates, rent; that's what people did forever until America showed that people can be trusted for long term loans.

Keep on whining. You might persuade a Chicken Little here or there. You won't persuade me.

[Etaoin]

OKAY TEX, I don't like to get personal or discuss my personal situation, but it is relevant to the positions that I take.

1. My company was bankrupted by stupid and greedy unions plus stupid and incompetent management!

2. The government was idiotic enough to bail them out by permitting them to dump their pension obligation on the PBGC.

3. This permitted my former employer, UNITED AIRLINES to continue to operate with a substantial advantage..(They qualified as the "TOO BIG TO FAIL".)..instead of permitting them to be bankrupted and out of business! This created a situation in which the other airlines could not compete with a bankrupt (but still operating at a substantial advantage) United, which dumped it's Pension obligations. Therefore, more airlines lined up for "the benefits of" bankruptcy .

Now GM has taken its place in the queue to be followed by any huge firm that can't compete with China, India or Korea. Needless to say, these bailouts will not apply to the small or medium sized business.

My Pension will be cut by only about 70% since the PBGC will pick up a small amount.

Now, because I DID NOT live according to the present modus operandi, I am still able to survive despite the losses created by the government post 9/11. You see Tex, I remember the Depression and I have never permitted myself to be dependant on either Bankers or the Government.

I have never forgotten that 'FIGURES DON'T LIE, BUT LIARS DO FIGURE!"
You may live by your evaluation of government statistics, but I am not stupid enough to lay my future on their figures!

Perhaps, considering this, you will understand my reluctance to place much credibility on Greenspan, Bernanke, or any other government functionary!

You talk about CONSPIRACIES, yes, the government does try to hide their failures..and they do rig their figures. IT'S ABOUT TIME YOU OPENED YOUR EYES TO REALITY.

You have consistentantly misunderstood our "half empty" view of the "booming" economy. We believe in this country and its potential, but when savings are penalized by the Fed with interest rates below the actual rate of inflation, the FED then rewards the speculator and the improvident with ridiculously low rates of interest. One cannot, if they are economically knowledgeable, have much faith in the long term results of their policies!

Out of curiosity, were you as ecstatic about the economy during the stock market boom???

[omegatrump]

Baloney, omega. You owe what you, personally, contract to pay. No kid is born in debt. Debt does not drive the economy -- consumer confidence does. Rich people don't "stage" depressions. If you don't like the mortgage rates, rent; that's what people did forever until America showed that people can be trusted for long term loans.

Keep on whining. You might persuade a Chicken Little here or there. You won't persuade me.
Obviously Foxy, you have a "zero" comprehension of how this whole system is set up. The burgeoning National debt is secured by the ability of our children to some how make the interest payments. The loan capital that is loaned out from the feds to every bank in the country is in itself an occurrence of debt. Mortgage rates is not what I am talking about, that is just one of the symptoms of the manipulation. It's not about rent vs mortgage. I have tried to introduce to you a totally New Concept. OWNERSHIP. We do not own this Nation. Our children will not own it. When the owners of the debt make a demand for payment and the debt cannot be paid, a little nasty word like "Depression" happens. It's like when you throw a ball into the air Foxy, it will continue to climb until gravity overcomes the force that propelled it. Can you relate to gravity Foxy. LOL
What would happen, for instance, let's say if the governor of Arizona decides he's going to borrow from New Mexico, California, Nevada, Colorado, Utah gazillions of dollars to perform an illegitimate function of government, what ever that may be. Then to pay it back he rolls out the printing press and prints up a gazillion or two dollars. New Mexico, California, etc. are all happy now right? Arizona met their obligation Right? LOL Wrong! The community of states, will quite likely begin to demand payment in hard assets. Or maybe they will offer a trade off. Something like, say; "Arizona, we have a horrible crime problem in our states. Tell you what, we will relieve your interest payment a little if you will take your police force and deal with this criminal element in our states." "What do you say"? Arizona say's, "OK!" what a deal, We'll sell it to our people "as a threat to our posterity". Sounds far fetched to you doesn't it Foxy. What about gravity?

[Rink]

All I know is interest rates ARE goin up monthly.

Across the board from what I'm hearing (I'm no economist or number cruncher)

I do know I Am the only one doin the shopping here, and Everything from milk to meats to veggies to that of cereals and more is all going up, up, up.

Prices are going higher than my fixed income can afford.

In my local area (concerning jobs, booming businesses) Local trucking companies are screaming for truck drivers.
From what I heard from my trucking school IITR, they cant provide trained truckers fast enough for the local companies.

Thats a good thing.

The trucking industry though is impacted by many factors, taxes, regulations fuel costs, and taxes on that fuel. In the state of WA gov gregoire has jacked the states fuel taxes practically through the roof and then turns to the press and whines 'blame the big oil companies for the hurting pocketbooks'

Now having come from a family thats dealt in the fuel oil etc business, I know just a lil bout this stuff, the pricing is sporadic and arbitrary and in some places competetive with other gas stations.

Up a penny on gas, down two pennies on diesel every other day (Union Oil used to call this house when it came to changing their prices on their products, every other day.)

In my town and state the gas prices is still hovering around $2.25/gal reg. in Clackamas the gas prices is more robust its now below the $2 dollar mark, (approx $!.99 or $1.98/ gal reg).

Big oil companies are in the business to make money and they DID make a load of money during the excuse of the katrina mess, the big oil companies also used the excuse of King Fahd's death to jack up the prices, then used the excuse of a coup in Africa (nigeria or some place round there) to jack their prices up again.

Oil well royalties are pitifully low and it is almost impossible to get the big oil companies that are pumping oil out of leased well from some people to pay the appropriate amount, they can outlast you in the courts and they can wait til they wear ya down over that particular thing.

On the economy and credit/debt.

One thing I will NEVER ever do is use credit cards, I have an aversion to credit cards and plastic in general. Only 'plastic' I like to even use is my debit/check card and that is to spare myself a charge if I go over my check limit. (the bank charges me if I go over a certain amount of checks written.)

I have a mortgage on this house that needs paying off, if thats paid off then I can definitely and easily live within my means without fear of debt hanging over my head, thats my goal.

Being a slave to the lender is being promoted by big govt, in fact the govt has helped credit card companies rape the little peoples pocketbooks with impunity.

why i dunno I'm again not an economist, I only know what I see, hear, read and experience.

I see things booming, but I also know what goes up must eventually come down, yes there's cycles, but some of these cycles can be cushioned if appropriate smart economic practices are kept.

From what I'm seeing tho is the opposite, a society geared towards pushing people to go into debt in order to get 'good credit' its the opposite of what our fathers once did, they saved, they didnt go into debt to get the latest gadgetry or newest car, or biggest house, they had patience to get what they wanted that was within their means.

Today the economy is geared towars lending, and spending on that loan, hence putting the person making the loans, or using the credit cards in debt and accountable to someone else, in other words the person using the credit cards may not see the hit in the pocketbook today they WILL see it tomorrow Plus the inflation Plus the added extra charges, so those using credit cards are actually overspending themselves way beyond their means and the economy is geared towards that particular mindset.

people delude themselves over this and just spend what they either want or need.

Some spend stupidly, some use credit cards as a crutch to get the basic necessities they wouldnt have been able to afford with cash.

Unfortunately both get caught in the red and loose the shirts off their backs, if they close their credit card accounts before paying off the credit cards, the credit card companies start jacking up the percentag on the credit card per month then tack on added extra numerous 'fees' and the credit card agencies main income is just THAT, they make the most of their money through doing that very thing.

Sorry if my post is a lil haphazard and alittle all over the place but I had a lot on my mind, and I'm also not one of those high-class economists crunchin out numbers etc, al I know is what I personally know.