DeclinetoState
12-16-2005, 10:10 PM
December 16, 2005
Elections and Civil War in Iraq
Elections are a good thing--most of the time. But what if they bring to power Islamic fundamentalists who vow to rip up constitutional democracy, as nearly happened in Algeria in the 1990s before the military canceled the voting? What if Egypt held free and fair elections and the Muslim Brotherhood won majority status? Who might triumph in Saudi Arabia if the princes allowed the public to vote? Would a Saudi government run by anti-Western Wahabis be good for US security (and oil prices)?
It's important to keep this dour view in mind as the latest election in Iraq is hailed by fans of Bush's war. Who doesn't hope that the election leads to a coherent and effective government that is able to take care of its people's needs and oversee an effective and civil security force? But hope is no substitute for analysis. These elections might be considered a sign of short-term political progress (despite the reported problems with voting in certain areas and the mob-violence that preceded the vote). But they are not likely to ameliorate the factors fueling the rising sectarian violence in Iraq. And it is not beyond imagination to see the elections as the start of a long-term problem, if a theocratic-minded Shiite government aligned with Iran (and looking to form a super-state in the south and screw the Sunnis) emerges from this election. Let's not forget that the previous elections--like the capture of Saddam Hussein and the killing of his two sons--did not lead to more security and stability in Iraq.
Hope away, if you like. But tempering the good vibes of Election Day may be necessary in order to have a realistic appraisal of Iraq: The Problem. As the voting began, former CIA analyst Larry Johnson wrote
With voting already underway in Iraq we should harbor no illusion about the ultimate outcome--the Iraqi Shias with the closest ties to Iran will secure the largest share of the votes. George Bush is right about one thing; this vote is likely to remake the face of the Middle East. Unfortunately, his vision that Iraq will become a launching pad for a new era of peace and understanding among the nations in the region is not only farfetched, but ignores what is actually taking place on the ground.
David Corn (http://www.davidcorn.com/)
Elections and Civil War in Iraq
Elections are a good thing--most of the time. But what if they bring to power Islamic fundamentalists who vow to rip up constitutional democracy, as nearly happened in Algeria in the 1990s before the military canceled the voting? What if Egypt held free and fair elections and the Muslim Brotherhood won majority status? Who might triumph in Saudi Arabia if the princes allowed the public to vote? Would a Saudi government run by anti-Western Wahabis be good for US security (and oil prices)?
It's important to keep this dour view in mind as the latest election in Iraq is hailed by fans of Bush's war. Who doesn't hope that the election leads to a coherent and effective government that is able to take care of its people's needs and oversee an effective and civil security force? But hope is no substitute for analysis. These elections might be considered a sign of short-term political progress (despite the reported problems with voting in certain areas and the mob-violence that preceded the vote). But they are not likely to ameliorate the factors fueling the rising sectarian violence in Iraq. And it is not beyond imagination to see the elections as the start of a long-term problem, if a theocratic-minded Shiite government aligned with Iran (and looking to form a super-state in the south and screw the Sunnis) emerges from this election. Let's not forget that the previous elections--like the capture of Saddam Hussein and the killing of his two sons--did not lead to more security and stability in Iraq.
Hope away, if you like. But tempering the good vibes of Election Day may be necessary in order to have a realistic appraisal of Iraq: The Problem. As the voting began, former CIA analyst Larry Johnson wrote
With voting already underway in Iraq we should harbor no illusion about the ultimate outcome--the Iraqi Shias with the closest ties to Iran will secure the largest share of the votes. George Bush is right about one thing; this vote is likely to remake the face of the Middle East. Unfortunately, his vision that Iraq will become a launching pad for a new era of peace and understanding among the nations in the region is not only farfetched, but ignores what is actually taking place on the ground.
David Corn (http://www.davidcorn.com/)