maxparrish
01-31-2006, 03:48 AM
On the morning of Alito's confirmation it would be useful to comment on the silver cloud with the dark lining...
The silver cloud is that a very solid conservative from our A list has been appointed to the court. In spite of many predictions as to a vicious fight, Alitos demanor combined with strong conservative support defused an effective Borking. Second only to Luttig or Brown on the conservative hot list, the nominee had impeciable credentials, a sterling record without a single mistep, and no serious "questions" on his background.
The dark lining, in spite of the defused opposition and Alto's perfect credentials and record, is that he will be approved with the smallest margin in 15 years. We are seeing a watershed, Democrats willing to vote for a filibuster and against Alito based solely on "we won't approve any conservative, period". No fire, no serious threats, no guilt - Alito is unlikely to get more than 8 or 9 democratic votes..and perhaps as few as 4 votes.
One no longer needs to be portrayed as a Nazi (Bork), or sexual predator (Thomas) for Democrats to vote "no", it is now as automatic and uneventful as breathing (or Ted downing a whiskey sour)...85 to 90% of Democrats are confrimed no votes for anyone who is not a stealth or a RINO judge.
So the future nominations will not be easy. It is not likely we will have another nomination so perfect - another conservative will have likely written something to cause real hysteria (like an anti-abortion opinion). The Patricia Jones, Rogers Browns, Pat Owens, and Karen Williams will not have as easy a time of it..
And the GOP Rinos, seeing the new criteria (vote no if you don't warm up to a judge) will prove problematical.
The question is, will Republicans remember that the democrats broke their agreement - that they tried to filibuster EVEN when there was little substantive controversy? Will we apply the same criteria to their nominations?
Will 80-90% of Republican vote NO on the next Ginsberg? Not bloody likely.
The silver cloud is that a very solid conservative from our A list has been appointed to the court. In spite of many predictions as to a vicious fight, Alitos demanor combined with strong conservative support defused an effective Borking. Second only to Luttig or Brown on the conservative hot list, the nominee had impeciable credentials, a sterling record without a single mistep, and no serious "questions" on his background.
The dark lining, in spite of the defused opposition and Alto's perfect credentials and record, is that he will be approved with the smallest margin in 15 years. We are seeing a watershed, Democrats willing to vote for a filibuster and against Alito based solely on "we won't approve any conservative, period". No fire, no serious threats, no guilt - Alito is unlikely to get more than 8 or 9 democratic votes..and perhaps as few as 4 votes.
One no longer needs to be portrayed as a Nazi (Bork), or sexual predator (Thomas) for Democrats to vote "no", it is now as automatic and uneventful as breathing (or Ted downing a whiskey sour)...85 to 90% of Democrats are confrimed no votes for anyone who is not a stealth or a RINO judge.
So the future nominations will not be easy. It is not likely we will have another nomination so perfect - another conservative will have likely written something to cause real hysteria (like an anti-abortion opinion). The Patricia Jones, Rogers Browns, Pat Owens, and Karen Williams will not have as easy a time of it..
And the GOP Rinos, seeing the new criteria (vote no if you don't warm up to a judge) will prove problematical.
The question is, will Republicans remember that the democrats broke their agreement - that they tried to filibuster EVEN when there was little substantive controversy? Will we apply the same criteria to their nominations?
Will 80-90% of Republican vote NO on the next Ginsberg? Not bloody likely.