Election 2008 National Head-to-Head Polls

[The_Elucidator]

Here is a link to Realclearpolitics national Head-to-head polls to keep a running update!

Real Clear Politics Presidential Polls (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html)

Feel free to bookmark to check on a daily basis!

Also...

Rasmussen Polls (http://rasmussenreports.com)

He was the closest by far of any pollsters on the web...especially Zogby!


I am including a great link if you want to research trends from past Elections:

Election Results (http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/)

[Venus de Smilo]

Thompson's got a lot of work to do.

I wish RCP would leave Pew and LA Times out of it. They're not reliable pollsters.

Thanks, luc. I'll be checking.

[DeclinetoState]

I've always thought the Pew Poll stunk!

:D

[DeclinetoState]

General Election: McCain vs. Obama
<table><tr><td>Poll</td> <td>Date</td> <td>Sample</td> <td>Obama (D)</td> <td>McCain (R)</td> <td>Spread<td></tr>
<tr><td>RCP Average </td> <td>05/11 - 05/27</td> <td></td> <td> 46.7</td> <td>44.1</td> <td>Obama +2.6
</tr><tr><td>Gallup Tracking</td> <td> 05/22 - 05/27</td> <td> 4411 RV</td> <td>45</td> <td>46</td> <td>McCain +1.0
</tr><tr><td>Rasmussen Tracking</td> <td> 05/24 - 05/27</td> <td> 1600 LV</td> <td>43</td> <td>47</td> <td>McCain +4.0
</tr><tr><td>Newsweek</td> <td> 05/21 - 05/22</td> <td> 1205 RV</td> <td>46</td> <td>46</td> <td>Tie
</tr><tr><td>Reuters/Zogby</td> <td> 05/15 - 05/18</td> <td> 1076 LV</td> <td>48</td> <td>40</td> <td>Obama +8.0
</tr><tr><td>IBD/TIPP</td> <td> 05/12 - 05/18</td> <td> 953 A</td> <td>48</td> <td>37</td> <td>Obama +11.0</td></tr><tr><td>Democracy Corps (D)</td> <td> 05/13 - 05/15</td> <td> 1014 LV</td> <td>48</td> <td>46</td> <td>Obama +2.0</td>
</tr><tr><td>Battleground </td> <td>05/11 - 05/14</td> <td> 1018 LV</td> <td>49</td> <td>47</td> <td>Obama +2.0</td></tr></table>

[DeclinetoState]

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3027/2833224705_1685834890_o.png

Projection is that Obama will win 50.8% of the PV, and 308 or 309 EV, to McCain's 47.2% of the PV and 229 or 230 EV.

Link (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/todays-polls-96.html)

[Longhorn_Platinum]

:unsmile: That same page shows some states as very close, including Ohio, Virginia, & Colorado, leaning Obama. Those could change. And as DoctorDoom says, the polls don't mean "schitte" at this point.

[DeclinetoState]

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3023/2844320942_60d3de010e_o.png

The EV count is much closer now, as is the PV. If Barack keeps putting his foot in his mouth (e.g., talking about "my Muslim faith"), those pies could start turning red very soon.

[PaulRevere]

The way it's shaping up at this moment, Colorado will be the decisive battleground state this year, IMO.

The way I'm looking at the projections, the Obamanation will need to win both CO and either NV or NH as well as hang on to MI and PA, while McCain will need only CO as long as he can hang on to FL.

[Republican_Legion]

I think McCain will overtake Penn and keep NV and Florida.

[DeclinetoState]

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ov-pT1x-W8Y/SMifmxwnYxI/AAAAAAAACVc/xECbwUmuiLY/S1600-R/0910_mainchart.PNG<BR><BR>Interesting.

[DeclinetoState]

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3076/2849474226_9011cc1840_o.png

These charts show McCain-Palin winning on election day. Still, a lot can and will happen between now and then.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3111/2849572298_3463bee0f8_o.png

Note the variations between the Quinnipiac polls and the other polls in Ohio and Florida. Quinnipiac uses larger samples, but I believe it has historically skewed to the left. I would guess that McCain has a much larger lead in Florida (8-10 points v. Quinnipiac's 5), and probably a slim lead in Ohio (1-2 points; Quinnipiac's 5 point edge for Obama there is probably an outlier).

I think the Nevada sample giving McCain a 1 point edge is too small, but maybe to get a larger sample they would have to interview a couple of jack rabbits.

I think Michigan is narrowly for Obama, but I believe Palin's "First Dude" (independent, and a union member) might be worth a few votes for the GOP ticket if he campaigns there.

28. Regardless of how you might vote, which
presidential ticket do you think will bring
the right change to Washington?

<table border="0"><tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td>Dem Ticket</td><td> Rep Ticket</td></tr>
<tr><td>Total </td> <td>46 </td> <td>39</td></tr>
<tr><td>Democrats </td> <td> 84 </td> <td> 5</td></tr>
<tr><td>Republicans </td> <td> 7 </td> <td> 82</td> <tr>
<tr><td>Independents </td> <td> 36 </td> <td> 38</td></tr></table>

It's the number at the bottom that ought to be a concern. Obama presently has no edge on "change" among independents. In fact, the Republicans lead in that category by two points.

You think that's because of John McCain? You think that McCain would be polling evenly among independents on "needed change" if he had selected Mitt Romney as his running mate? No, it's because of Sarah Palin.
More charts and analyses (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/).

[DeclinetoState]

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3197/2851438594_891e2820a6_o.png

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Interpretation: McCain leads in the EC 277-261. McCain would win the popular vote with slightly over 50%. His chances of winning the election are 52%.

Of course, all of this can and will change.

[DeclinetoState]

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3048/2854579294_993da86ae8_o.png
Fivethirtyeight.com (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/)

Projections are that McCain wins 298 EV and 50.7% of the PV. Also, he seems to have about a 57% chance of winning the election.

[DeclinetoState]

Sunday, September 14:

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3048/2854579294_993da86ae8_o.png

McCain leads in the EC 290-248, and in the PV 50.7-48.3. He has a 57% chance of winning the election.

All of which means nothing, depending on how the debates go.

[Seabee]

Pay attention to the swing voters also. We hear they are the key every Presidential election. I do not know how much water that fact may have held in past elections but it seems in this one they will be the deciding factor. The only weakness they have as a voting bloc is how they are spread out demographically in each state. They can effect the popular vote,on a national level. But, how they will effect the voting trends in each state remains to be seen.

[DeclinetoState]

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_5ieXw28ZUpg/SNFyw5EPIzI/AAAAAAAAACs/Vcrqi5OdCIY/S1600-R/0917_mainchart.png

For Wednesday, September 17.

Any movement toward Obama can probably be attributed to the recent economic troubles.

[DeclinetoState]

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_5ieXw28ZUpg/SNFyw5EPIzI/AAAAAAAAACs/Vcrqi5OdCIY/S1600-R/0917_mainchart.png (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/)

For Thursday, September 18.

[DeclinetoState]

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_5ieXw28ZUpg/SNQVStwUZMI/AAAAAAAAADs/o-EyEig5s1g/S1600-R/0919_mainchart.png

Saturday, September 20

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_5ieXw28ZUpg/SNQVyRxo3JI/AAAAAAAAAD8/2CwOrmVh3Iw/S1600-R/0919_bigmap.png

[Proud American]

Pay attention to the swing voters also. We hear they are the key every Presidential election. I do not know how much water that fact may have held in past elections but it seems in this one they will be the deciding factor. The only weakness they have as a voting bloc is how they are spread out demographically in each state. They can effect the popular vote,on a national level. But, how they will effect the voting trends in each state remains to be seen.

That wasn't the case in 2004. The Republicans won because they were able to out organize the democrats and the republican base came out to vote more than the democratic base. The democrats went after the 'center' and lost.

The Democrats this year have been working much harder on organization and energizing their base. I don't think this election will be decided on appealing to the center. It will be decided on who is better at identifing their supporters and gets them to the polls.

[PaulRevere]

That wasn't the case in 2004. The Republicans won because they were able to out organize the democrats and the republican base came out to vote more than the democratic base. The democrats went after the 'center' and lost.

The Democrats this year have been working much harder on organization and energizing their base. I don't think this election will be decided on appealing to the center. It will be decided on who is better at identifing their supporters and gets them to the polls.
Yes, like with the Rat SecState of Ohio enabling ACORN's voter fraud.

Vote early, vote often; got nothing to do today? Drive to Ohio and vote!

[Longhorn_Platinum]

:unsmile: I've noticed that the media have said very little about the voter fraud in Ohio. Although if McCain wins, they'll "report" that it went in his favor.

[Suzie]

AOL poll where you have to do verification or log in with a screen name.

[anarchy2day]

Latest Zogby poll:

Zogby Poll: Obama 47.8%, McCain 45.1% (http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1597)

This race is tightening up and it seems to me to be shifting to McCain's side.

From what I suspect (and which hasn't been verified by anything except my hunches), it may not be all about the Obamunist either, but about the unchecked socialist trifecta of Pelosi-Reid-Obama. People are realizing that they want that check and giving it all to the democrats is inherently a bad idea.

[Lazarus]

AOL poll where you have to do verification or log in with a screen name.I would certainly put more value on this poll than the "professional" pollsters who all seem to be on the payrolls of the various MSM outlets...

[DeclinetoState]

Fivethirtyeight.com:

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_5ieXw28ZUpg/SPulFJ5VMeI/AAAAAAAAAWs/ZtFNeBSF9yk/S1600-R/1019_bigmap.png

They're still predicting an Obama landslide.

[Lazarus]

Larry Sabato says that Obama will win the election and the Dems will expand their hold on both the houSe and the Senate... If this turns out to be the case we can expect this year to be the end of freedom in America...

[Suzie]

AOL has him up another percentage point this week.

People with an AOL screen name can vote here, http://news.aol.com/political-machine/2008/10/17/aol-straw-poll-oct-17-24/

[Lazarus]

Something is very wrong in this election if there is that much discrepency between two polls... Someone is trying to put the fix in...

[Proud American]

Fivethirtyeight.com does a Senate Projection.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/senate-projections-1020.html


http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3293/2956866653_7a3185c4e7_o.png

Our Senate projections are little changed from our last update six days ago. We currently project the composition of the new Senate to be 56.7 Democrats, 41.3 Republicans, and 2.0 independents; this is not significantly changed from 56.6-41.4-2.0 last week. We furthermore show the Democrats as having a 32 percent chance to control a 60-seat caucus (counting independents Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders), up incrementally from 30 percent last week.


I don't think the democrats can count on Joe Lieberman voting to stop republican fillibusters. I think there is a better than even chance that the democrats will in fact kick Lieberman out of the caucus and take his chairmanship.

However they well make a play for Chafee, Olympia Snowe, or Arlen Spector by offering them something if they will become independents ,and vote to uphold an up or down vote on Senate Bills.

[The_Elucidator]

However they well make a play for Chafee

:roar: I hope they do.. Since dead people vote in the General Election, I don't see a problem with retired Senators doing the same thing!

[Suzie]

Does anyone have a link to gubernatorial polls? Our socialist state run media hasn't been posting them and our current democratic governor has pissed off a lot of people here. Nearly all of State government workers hate him. He fraudulently got a degree for his daughter from WVU. Lots of people blame him for pushing the new WVU coach on the college. (serious business here)

I am wondering if he's keeping the media from posting polls because they aren't favorable.

(hey I can dream can't I?)

[Lazarus]

Here ya go, Sooz...

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2008/governor/

That is Larry Sabato's website at the U of Va Political Science School... They are the absolutely most accurate polling service out there - hands down... In 2006 they not only called the Congressional take over by the Democrats, they correctly named the exact seats that would change hands and didn't miss a single one...

When Sabato speaks, I listen - and sadly his message for us this year is dire indeed...

You can check the Congressional and Presidential races there too - in detail...

[Suzie]

Thanks ... I think. :( I will thank you for the link anyway ... just not what it says.

Outlook: Solid Democratic
<hr style="border: medium none ; height: 1px; margin-top: 5px; margin-bottom: 5px;"> August 7, 2008 Update:
Yet another non-contest. Democratic Governor Joe Manchin III will easily win a second term with minimal GOP opposition. The state Republican party's weakness is surprising in light of a serious scandal whereby Manchin's daughter was awarded a master's degree she did not earn by West Virginia University. This outrageous corruption of higher education forced out the president of WVU, but so far no one has been able to tie the governor to it directly--though the university president was a crony of Manchin's.

[DeclinetoState]

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_5ieXw28ZUpg/SP5W9n8vfQI/AAAAAAAAAYc/iYx6G2CyrfM/S1600-R/1021_bigmap.png

I'm afraid Obama will have to have a major meltdown in the next few days to lose the election. Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico (all "red" states in '04) are all but locked up for Obama. He's at or above 50% in all of those states (well above in New Mexico).

[The_Elucidator]

I'm afraid Obama will have to have a major meltdown in the next few days to lose the election. Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico (all "red" states in '04) are all but locked up for Obama. He's at or above 50% in all of those states (well above in New Mexico).

Horseshit!!

Check this out!! (http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1603)

and this (http://www.tarrance.com/files/2-way-ballot-trender-10-20.pdf)

And find out why Obama is really in Hawaii (http://gabriellecusumano.blogtownhall.com/)

Then get back to me!!

[DeclinetoState]

5 hours ago

WASHINGTON — Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has opened up a 10-point lead over Republican opponent John McCain two weeks before the November 4 U.S. election, according to Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll released on Tuesday.

The poll found 52 percent of voters favor Obama compared with 42 percent for McCain, up from a 6-point Obama edge two weeks ago, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The 10-point lead is the largest in the Journal/NBC poll to date and represents a steady climb for Obama since early September, when the political conventions concluded with the candidates in a statistical tie, the newspaper reported.

The poll also found that the popularity of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has fallen. Voters are less likely to see the Republican vice presidential nominee in a positive light, and much more likely to report negative feelings, the Wall Street Journal said.

Forty-seven percent view Palin negatively, compared with 38 percent who see her in a positive light.
Link (http://www.comcast.net/articles/news-general/20081021/NEWS-US-USA-POLITICS-POLL-NBC/)

[Republican_Legion]

Link (http://www.comcast.net/articles/news-general/20081021/NEWS-US-USA-POLITICS-POLL-NBC/)

Rasmussen says McCain has regained the lead in Ohio and Florida.
Rasmussen says its McCain 46% and Obama 50%.

[Suzie]

Hmm Luc has 3 links. How hard did you have to search to find one?

[DeclinetoState]

Are you suggesting that the Wall Street Journal and NBC are presenting a "cooked" poll?

[Suzie]

From the same people who do MSNBC? I would be amazed if they DIDN'T stage the numbers not even begin to question that they wouldn't.

[Republican_Legion]

Susie is right.
To begin with MSNBC makes CNN, CBS and ABC look like Moderates.
Keith Olberman and Chris Mathews are the voice of MSNBC.

[The_Elucidator]

Are you suggesting that the Wall Street Journal and NBC are presenting a "cooked" poll?

Most of them are cooked!! You show me how it was weighted and I might give it some respect!

I just gave gave the folks a bunch of reasons for optimism and you post the first negative, 99% likelihood of being overweighted for Dems, fresh off the front page, poll from MSDNC.. :rolleyes:

In case you missed it, Zogby, the guy who gave us yesterdays battleground polling showing McCain up or withhin the MOE, has a hummer out there calling for a landslide in the National Poll. It's on the front of Drudge if you want to report that. And I would love yours and Rogers insight as to why his National Poll says landslide but his 10 State Battleground poll shows a good opportunity for a McCain victory. Where are these National voters coming from? NY, NJ, CA, WA, OR, MA, CT, VT, MD, ME, RI land of the Lincoln Chaffee, Olympia Snowe Pubs.

Sorry folks I'm not buying the Gloom and Doom!!!

[DeclinetoState]

I was actually a bit surprised that the WSJ, now a Murdoch publication, was sponsoring or taking a poll with NBC rather than fellow Murdoch outlet FOX News. But politics and the news media make strange bedfellows.

IAC, better to be too pessimistic than overly optimistic.

FWIW, I've already voted, though in the Golden State, all polls show a likely landslide win for "The One." I don't think McCain has spent any money here (except for a few Palin appearances a few weeks ago).

[The_Elucidator]

IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day Ten

Posted: Wednesday, October 22, 2008


Contrary to other polls, some of which show Obama ahead by double digits, the IBD/TIPP Poll shows a sudden tightening of Obama's lead to 3.7 from 6.0. McCain has picked up 3 points in the West and with independents, married women and those with some college. He's also gaining momentum in the suburbs, where he's gone from dead even a week ago to a 20-point lead. Obama padded gains in urban areas and with lower-class households, but he slipped 4 points with parents.

More Here (http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=309546869309178)

Couple of points!

1) Anyone else notice some of the pollsters taking shots at each other?

2) The internals of this poll show what we all "expected" would happen. McCain gains in the burbs and Obama gains in the urban areas. It also shows McCain losing support in the NE while picking it up in the West. Again no big surprise. Looks like these guys are trying to save their sorry butts!!!

3) The internals also go to a point I tried to make in another thread about who these pollsters are contacting for the "National" polls. If they are hitting NE and Urban Republicans (is there such a thing) they will get a different response than polling all flyover Republicans... Same thing with Democrats.

[Lazarus]

Wouldn't it be funny to start seeing a catfight among the pollsters?:biggrin:

I particularly don't trust those pollsters who are publishing in conjunction with any of the major media outlets... I don't know what they were thinking but from my angle they look like they on the payrolls of ABC, CBS, CNN, etc... How objective could they be? Why not just call them the "Gallop/Obama Poll"...

[The_Elucidator]

I would love to see a catfight among the frauds!!

As far as the Pollster/DBM polls:

When client A pays 21.5 M for polling and client B pays 1.3 M for polling, anybody wonder what the outcome might be? :smirky:

[anarchy2day]

New AP/GfK poll has it Obama 48, McCain 47 among likely voters.

Link (http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/)

[DeclinetoState]

Contrary to other polls, some of which show Obama ahead by double digits, the IBD/TIPP Poll shows a sudden tightening of Obama's lead to 3.7 from 6.0.That tells me IBD/TIPP is likely to be an outlier. However, if several other polls tend to show similar results (i.e., that the race is tightening up) within the next few days, then I'll take this poll more seriously.

[The_Elucidator]

That tells me IBD/TIPP is likely to be an outlier. However, if several other polls tend to show similar results (i.e., that the race is tightening up) within the next few days, then I'll take this poll more seriously.

AP, Battleground, Gallup Traditional... ?

[DeclinetoState]

Well, now they're yesterday's polls.

While some polls show the race tightening up, others show Obama's lead widening. Put them all together, and nothing much as changed.
While there are plenty of individual results for Matt Drudge to get excited about (or for that matter the Huffington Post), the fact is that the overall trend in this election is roughly flat, and has been for about a week or so. That is bad news for the candidate trailing in the race, which in this case is John McCain.

Five of the eight tracking polls moved toward Barack Obama today; the other three moved toward McCain. It's possible that there was a very slight shift in momentum toward John McCain last week, and that it's been counteracted by a similar shift toward Barack Obama after the Colin Powell endorsement. It's also possible that we've simply been reading too much into what amounts to statistical noise. Either way, our Super Tracker thinks that Obama is now no more than half a point off his peak numbers, which were realized earlier this month. John McCain needs to begin closing these numbers, and soon. FiveThirtyEight.com (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/todays-polls-1022.html)

RealClearPolitics (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10) has 259 EV solid for Obama, 47 leaning. Basically, all toss-up states, as well as all leaners for Obama, would have to vote for McCain for the GOP to have a chance.

[anarchy2day]

Don't believe the polls that have Obama up by large margins or widening his lead. They are false. Realize that the country isn't as left as these pollsters would have you believe.

I remember seeing a poll that had Obama ahead in North Carolina by double digits (if I recall, one had him up by 14!) That isn't even close to being real. Even if he won the state, it wouldn't be by double digits. It ain't going to happen at all. McCain wins North Carolina handily.

[DeclinetoState]

RealClearPolitics (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/#data) has N.C. a toss-up, with Obama up by 2. Bush won the state by over 12 in both 2000 and 2004.

[anarchy2day]

RealClearPolitics (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/#data) has N.C. a toss-up, with Obama up by 2. Bush won the state by over 12 in both 2000 and 2004.
Don't you worry your pretty little head about North Carolina. It isn't about to swing to the Obamunist.

Funny thing, using the word "Obamunist" got me suspended from one message board until after the election. I kindly wrote them back informing them I would never return. ;) Thanks Doc! :rotflmbo:

[anarchy2day]

Latest IBD/TIPP poll (http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=309635713550536)

Obama: 44.8%
McCain: 43.7%
Unsure: 11.6%

These late breakers are going to break for McCain, especially if Obama's running mate makes another appearance before the election. Although, Obama could say something stupid too, like "redistribute the wealth".

Among Catholics, McCain trailed 11% two days ago. McCain is now up by 9% over Obama among that group. I expect that differential to expand in McCain's favor.

McCain has also gained 10% among voters who make between $30,000 and $75,000.

McCain is going to win, mark it!

[The_Elucidator]

Latest IBD/TIPP poll (http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=309635713550536)

Obama: 44.8%
McCain: 43.7%
Unsure: 11.6%

These late breakers are going to break for McCain, especially if Obama's running mate makes another appearance before the election. Although, Obama could say something stupid too, like "redistribute the wealth".

I have absolutely zero information or scientific data to back my assumption, but with less than 2 weeks out to have 11% unsure. That leads me to believe that at least half to three quarters of them probably are afraid to admit they going to vote for McCain for fear of being called a racist.. Just a hunch!!

[anarchy2day]

I have absolutely zero information or scientific data to back my assumption, but with less than 2 weeks out to have 11% unsure. That leads me to believe that at least half to three quarters of them probably are afraid to admit they going to vote for McCain for fear of being called a racist.. Just a hunch!!
The good ol' Obama-Biden effect. You can always count on it.

Look at the peculiars though.

The age bracket has, the youth vote (18-24) are 74%-22% for McCain! Damn! That has to be an error. But the 25-44 are about even and the 65+ are tending towards McCain.

But, look at the income bracket too. Under $30k, not surprisingly goes towards Obama. The $30k-75k bracket tends towards McCain. This is were the vast majority of voters are located. Those above $75k tend towards Obama.

The household description (a different breakout than the income one), the lower and upper ends tend towards Obama. The middle class goes towards McCain and the working class looks to be a wash, with the large number of undecideds.

Taking a look a the religious bracket, the Christians (Protestants, Catholics, others - re: Orthodox Christians, etc.) all heavily support McCain. The non-Christians (Jews, Muslims, Buddhists, atheists) all support Obama heavily. Any surprises there?

Of course, if you look at the Urban vs. Suburban & Rural voters, McCain gets the Suburban & Rural vote heavily. Obama, not surprisingly, garners the city dwellers.

[The_Elucidator]

It had a disclaimer on today's poll saying there is a wild swing because of a small sample. However if you look at the previous days, even when Obama had a strong lead in that age group, McCain was within MOE.

One thing to remember about the 18 - 24 group that could start to factor in... The idea of a draft that has been thrown out there. McCain needs to hit him hard on this, very hard. He does, he gets does very well in this age group.

[anarchy2day]

That's why I said that age group had to be in error. Although, if McCain actually wins 30% of that group, he is doing extremely well. These are novices of life that haven't learned a damned thing about life yet but are able to cast a vote.

[gnome]

I thought Obama was supposedly an appeaser that would surrender to terrorists. Why on earth would there be a draft because he got elected?

[Longhorn_Platinum]

:unsmile: As I understand it, there are a lot of young people thinking twice about volunteering for military duty, because they wouldn't want to serve under Obama. Even a lot of folks currently serving would not want to reënlist. He's not exactly military-friendly, & bear in mind that most young people who are "probama" (if I can coin a word), are peaceniks who wouldn't go anywhere near a recruiting station.

[The_Elucidator]

:unsmile: As I understand it, there are a lot of young people thinking twice about volunteering for military duty, because they wouldn't want to serve under Obama. Even a lot of folks currently serving would not want to reënlist. He's not exactly military-friendly, & bear in mind that most young people who are "probama" (if I can coin a word), are peaceniks who wouldn't go anywhere near a recruiting station.

That's true, at least in my circle

[DeclinetoState]

By Andrew Quinn, Reuters
11 hours ago

WASHINGTON — Democrat Barack Obama's lead over Republican rival John McCain fell slightly to 9 points, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released Saturday, the second consecutive day the race has narrowed.

Obama leads McCain by 51 percent to 42 percent in the rolling three-day tracking poll, which has a margin of error of 2.9 points. Obama led by 10 points Friday and 12 points on Thursday.

Pollster John Zogby said McCain, who had seen his Democratic rival stake out a widening lead as economic issues dominated the campaign, appeared to be winning some converts with his own economic message.
Link (http://www.comcast.net/articles/news-general/20081007/NEWS-US-USA-POLITICS-POLL/)

[The_Elucidator]

Slips?

[spectre]

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Obama 49.4%, McCain 44.1%


Released: October 26, 2008

McCain gains as race continues to tighten

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1611

[DeclinetoState]

From spectre's link (http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1611) above:
UTICA, New York – Republican John McCain continues to gain on Democrat Barack Obama, reducing Obama’s lead to 5.3 points with just over a week to go before Election Day, the latest Reuters/C–SPAN/Zogby national daily tracking poll shows.<br>
The race now stands at 49.4% to 44.1% in favor of Obama. Obama led McCain by 9.5 points in yesterday’s report.<br>
“There is no question that this race continues to tighten and that McCain is finding his message again,” said Pollster John Zogby. “It is after all about the economy and that is how McCain tightened it up the last time. I have said over and over again, when he focuses on extraneous issues, he screws up. In today's single day of polling, it was 49% to 46% in favor of Obama. McCain has moved his own numbers each of the three days and Obama has gone down from 54% to 50% to 49%. I have alluded before to this strange, magnetic pull that brings Obama down to 48% or 49%, a danger zone for him. McCain's gains are among white voters, where he now leads by 12 points, and with men, where he again has a healthy lead. There is still a lot of campaign to go. A lot of campaign to go.”

[DeclinetoState]

Obama/Biden 306
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/images/dem-solid.gif 259 Solid http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/images/dem-leaning.gif 47 Leaning

McCain/Palin 157
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/images/gop-solid.gif 127 Solid http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/images/gop-leaning.gif 30 Leaning

Toss Up 75
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/images/toss-up.gif 75 Toss Up

ReaclClearPolitics.com (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/#data)

In Missouri (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/missouri/election_2008_missouri_presidential_election) and North Carolina, (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/north_carolina/election_2008_north_carolina_presidential_election ) the race remains a toss-up while McCain leads by five in his home state of Arizona (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/arizona/election_2008_arizona_presidential_election). Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projections (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update) now show Obama leading 260-163. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 313-174.
Rasmussen Reports.com (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll)

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_5ieXw28ZUpg/SQeNxGqFkaI/AAAAAAAAAe0/biibYPqTe_U/S1600-R/1028_bigmap.png

Fivethirtyeight.com (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/)

<table width="190" border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr height="19"><td colspan="3" width="180" bgcolor="white" height="19"> Key
</td> </tr> <tr height="19"> <td width="109" bgcolor="white" height="19">Obama</td> <td width="14" bgcolor="white" height="19">Blue</td> <td width="13" bgcolor="white" height="19">286</td> </tr> <tr height="19"> <td width="109" bgcolor="white" height="19">McCain</td> <td width="14" bgcolor="white" height="19">Red</td> <td width="13" bgcolor="white" height="19">174</td> </tr> <tr height="19"> <td width="109" bgcolor="white" height="19">Not Sure</td> <td width="14" bgcolor="white" height="19">Purple</td> <td width="13" bgcolor="white" height="19">78</td></tr></tbody></table>

Zogby.com (http://www.zogby.com/50state/)

Even if all the undecided states in each poll go for McCain, Obama will be the next president.

[Suzie]

From AOL where you must use a screen name and can only vote once.
http://news.aol.com/elections/article/theyre-getting-down-to-the-wire/228532?icid=100214839x1212332865x1200722226

[The_Elucidator]

with a 100% point lead in their latest national poll.

Obama 100%

McCain 0%

This survey was weighted by polling 1,025 residents of the Cabrini-Green neighborhood on the South Side of Chicago.

[DeclinetoState]

Barack Obama is firmly ahead of John McCain in both Colorado and Pennsylvania, a new Politico/InsiderAdvantage poll shows.<br>
In the swing state of Colorado, Obama posts an 8-point lead over McCain, besting him 53 percent to 45 percent. He holds a similar advantage in Pennsylvania, where he tops McCain by 9 percentage points, 51 percent to 42 percent.<br>
McCain, however, is fighting Obama to a draw in two of those states' key battleground counties: Jefferson County, a suburb of Denver, and Bucks County, in suburban Philadelphia.<br>
In Jefferson, a onetime Republican stronghold that has become more competitive in recent years, McCain and Obama are statistically tied, with the Republican leading 47 percent to 45 percent.<br>
That two-point margin matches the result of an Oct. 12 Politico/InsiderAdvantage survey, which showed McCain edging Obama in Jefferson, 45 percent to 43 percent, though in this week's poll there are half as many undecided.<br>
Bucks County voters gave Obama a similarly thin, 3-point lead. The Illinois Democrat led McCain, 46 percent to 43 percent.
Link (http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20081028/pl_politico/15024)

[Wyatt_Junker]

In the swing state of Colorado, Obama posts an 8-point lead over McCain, besting him 53 percent to 45 percent. He holds a similar advantage in Pennsylvania, where he tops McCain by 9 percentage points, 51 percent to 42 percent.


Damn Amish folk.

[The_Elucidator]

FOX News Poll: Obama's Edge Over McCain Narrows

As the candidates make their closing arguments before the election, the race has tightened with Barack Obama now leading John McCain by 47 percent to 44 percent among likely voters, according to a FOX News poll released Thursday. Last week Obama led by 49-40 percent among likely voters.

More Here (http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/30/fox-news-poll-obamas-edge-mccain-narrows/)

My best guess with all the number crunching (Actual weight of the polls and election history) as of today would be McCain 51 Obama 48 nationally!! I don't believe Nader or Barr will pull more than 1% together!

[DeclinetoState]

I don't believe Nader or Barr will pull more than 1% together! But what about Cynthia McKinney (http://www.mckinney2008.com/PRESIDENT/)?

:evilgrin:

[The_Elucidator]

But what about Cynthia McKinney (http://www.mckinney2008.com/PRESIDENT/)?

:evilgrin:

Who? :smirky:

[DeclinetoState]

Who? :smirky:
Buckwheat.

[The_Elucidator]

Buckwheat.

Oh, Otay.. :thumb:

[anarchy2day]

For what it's worth...

UTICA, New York -- Republican John McCain made a small gain against Democrat Barack Obama and has pulled back within the margin of error, now trailing Obama by five points, 49.1% to 44.1%, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking telephone poll shows.

Almost two days worth of the polling -- or about half of the current sample in the three-day rolling poll of likely voters nationwide, was conducted after Obama's 30-minute commercial aired Wednesday evening. There is no evidence it helped him, as he has dropped 1.1 points in the last two days, while McCain has gained 0.8 points during the same period.

Pollster John Zogby: "Is McCain making a move? The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama today, 48% to 47%."

[DeclinetoState]

Largest lead for Obama among likely voters to date

PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama leads John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking (http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx) interviewing conducted Wednesday through Friday by an identical 52% to 42% margin among both traditional likely voters (http://www.gallup.com/poll/111124/Gallup-Daily-Likely-Voters-Traditional.aspx) and expanded likely voters (http://www.gallup.com/poll/111121/Gallup-Daily-Likely-Voters-Expanded.aspx). Obama leads by a similar 52% to 41% margin among all registered voters.

http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/npjelacg3kotj222dcubgw.gif
http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/rq8wqg3agky_6egme-raow.gif
This is the first time since Gallup began estimating likely voters in early October that there is no difference between Gallup's two likely voter models. Obama's lead of 52% to 42% using Gallup's traditional estimate of likely voting criteria takes into account past voting as well as current intentions. Obama's identical lead using the expanded model takes into account only current voting intentions.<br>
Both of these likely voter estimates in turn are almost identical to Gallup's 52% to 41% registered voter estimate.
http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/n1lyfkxztkg7ktsa1xq5vg.gif


Link (http://www.gallup.com/poll/111661/Gallup-Daily-Obama-52-McCain-42-Among-Likely-Voters.aspx)

If Gallup is right, the election will be a solid win for Obama.

[anarchy2day]

IDB/Tipp Poll: The Obamunist 46.7% / McCain 44.6% / Not sure 8.7%

November 2, 2008

Day 21: IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll

The race tightened again Sunday as independents who'd been leaning to Obama shifted to McCain to leave that key group a toss-up. McCain also pulled even in the Midwest, moved back into the lead with men, padded his gains among Protestants and Catholics, and is favored for the first time by high school graduates.

[The_Elucidator]

Come on DtS, Gallup and Zogby have their own secret sauce that they add to these polls to make them come out +10 Obama... Not only oversampling 'Rats, interviewing 'Rats from Blue States, vs 'Rats from Red States. If that ain't a special sauce, then I don't know what is!! :rotflmbo:

[DeclinetoState]

Come on DtS, Gallup and Zogby have their own secret sauce that they add to these polls to make them come out +10 Obama... Not only oversampling 'Rats, interviewing 'Rats from Blue States, vs 'Rats from Red States. If that ain't a special sauce, then I don't know what is!! :rotflmbo:
Perhaps Rasmussen (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll) is more reliable than Gallup, but it still doesn't look good for McCain:

Sunday, November 02, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday once again shows Barack Obama with 51% of the vote while John <nobr>McCainhttp://images.intellitxt.com/ast/adTypes/mag-glass_10x10.gif</nobr> (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll#) is five points back at 46%. This is the 38th straight day that Obama’s support has stayed between 50% and 52% (see trends (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/general_election_match_up_history)).

For the past seven days, Obama has been ahead by three to five points. For the month before that, the Democratic nominee was up by four to eight points every day.

[anarchy2day]

DtS, don't worry. Just do your part and cast a vote in Nevada. ;) Seriously though, don't worry too much. These polls are overly skewed in favor of the Obamination. It isn't as dire as you think.

As I have stated before.

Look at the demographics of the polls. California has about 37 million people. New York has about 20 million. Illinois has about 13 million. New Jersey has about 9 million. Massachusetts has about 7 million. Michigan has about 10 million.

Obama is winning by huge margins in these states. McCain is winning by huge margins in smaller states. Alaska, under 1 million, Wyoming, under 1 million. Utah, about 3 million. The only big population states that McCain leads in by a large margin is Texas with about 24 million residents and Arizona with about 7 million and North Carolina with about 9 million.

Take the demographics. If Obama is winning in those large states by huge margins, he's winning huge voter edges in them. If the race is so close that it falls within the margin of error, McCain is doing alright in these "close" states.

[The_Elucidator]

Perhaps Rasmussen (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll) is more reliable than Gallup, but it still doesn't look good for McCain:

All right Dts, FYI on Gallup and their secret formula:

Gallups weighted numbers for their final poll:

Democrat - 39%
Independent - 31%
Republican - 29%

Exit polling for the 2004 election:

Democrat - 37%
Republican - 37%
Independent - 26%

Exit polling For the 2006 election:

Democrat - 38%
Republican - 36%
Independent - 26%

Absolutely no way the 'Rats go from even in 2004 to +2 in 06 to +10 with the GOP behind even -2 to Ind...

Gallup at this point CAN'T be taken seriously!

Also another blast from the past!!

GALLOP POLL WEEKEND BEFORE NH PRIMARY

"Obama now has a substantial 13-point, 41% to 28% lead over Clinton among likely voters...

She won by how much?


Yes polls can be THAT WRONG!


Never before in the history of this country have we had a LIBERAL BLACK candidate running for POTUS so you can't use an old template to poll these voters. This election will be a learning curve for ALL the pollsters! Book it!!


Again, apply that to the Rasmussen Gravy that he is spreading on his polls and you will see the same result to a lesser extent. He is weighting to the tune of 7%. And when you consider the MOE, if he's off by even 2% points it's dead even!!

A little Rasmussen Gravy here, he botched it big time!! (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_democratic_primary)

The final Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in New Hampshire’s Democratic Presidential Primary shows Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton 37% to 30%.

Clinton has a slight edge among Democrats but the Illinois Senator enjoys a more than 2-to-1 advantage among Independent voters likely to vote in the Democratic Primary.

Remember that Obama racked up the delegates during the Caucuses where he could bus in his thugs and intimidate people into voting for him. He underperformed in just about ALL of the primaries against Hillary; ALMOST ALL, and some were substantial!!


And don't forget the substantial number of "new" voters that registered Dem during operation Chaos, that will end up voting for McCain. Those are almost rock solid "crossovers." Book it!


So yes they can ALL be off substantially at the same time!!!

Ditto the results I posted earlier about how most of them missed California by over 10% also!

[anarchy2day]

Don't leave out the PUMA factor. A sizable portion of democrats will not vote for Obama under any circumstance. These are mostly disenfranchised Hillary supporters. They aren't drawn to McCain because of Palin. They are pushed to McCain by their utter hatred of how the Democratic Party shafted Hillary, which was compounded by Obama's choice of Biden over Hillary for the VP slot. Of course, they felt that Hillary was the better choice for their party. Furthermore, they were correct to feel that way. She was the better choice. If she had the funds that Obama had and she was going against McCain, the democrats would be a lock to win the office. As it stands, despite all those funds being spent, he may still lose.

Two scenarios with this voting block.

Let's say that they don't vote period. That throws these polls all out of whack! These folks will be, at minimum, 10-12% of the democratic vote. Consider this, Hillary received more votes than Obama for the nomination (18 million to 17 million). If 25% of Hillary supporters stay home (not even voting for McCain, just them staying home), that's 4.5 million votes that Obama doesn't get. The expected range is somewhere between 20% and 30% of Hillary supporters that will either vote for McCain or not vote at all. If that holds true, Obama is screwed.

Now, the other scenario is even worse for Obama. If the majority of those 25% of Hillary supporters actually cast ballots for McCain. In that case, not only does he lose those votes, but McCain actually gains them. Also, I don't think these are adequately accounted for in the polling data. While the PUMAs are vocal (and may not lie to a pollster), they certainly are not being adequately polled as a portion of the demographics. Consider, the IBD/TIPP poll breaks out the democrats as 85% behind Obama with only 8% behind McCain, with 7% unsure. That doesn't wash with what is known about the size of the PUMAs.

They are hardcore and they are backing McCain. They will also turn out in droves. PUMA Party (http://pumaparty.com/) Their campaign has become one with a message of

http://pumaparty.com/images/puma-democrats-for-mccain-bumper-sticker.gif

and it may be them, more than us conservatives, may carry the day for McCain.

[The_Elucidator]

Absolutely dude!! I posted an article from the NY Times talking about McCain getting some folks from Philly to include PUMA voters!!!

This is going to be a very close race, almost razor thin! But don't be surprised to see some blue states go red and even a red state go blue. But when the counting is done I expect McCain 270 Obama 268!! Book it!!

[DeclinetoState]

Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Barack Obama has an average lead of 6.4 percentage points over John McCain in national polls with two days left in the presidential campaign.<br>
Polls released in the last week showed the Democratic candidate with leads ranging from three points in a Fox News survey to 13 points in a CBS News poll. The average of polls compiled by Real Clear Politics shows that Obama has been ahead between five and eight points since the beginning of October.

...

That trend has been reflected in the so-called battleground states where the presidential election will be decided.<br>
Ohio<br>
In Ohio, which no Republican has ever lost and still won the presidency, 50 percent of registered voters surveyed in an Oct. 25-27 Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll said they trusted Obama to make the right decisions about the economy compared with 38 percent who backed McCain. The poll showed Obama leading by nine percentage points over McCain in Ohio.<br>
A Columbus Dispatch poll released today showed Obama has a six-point lead, virtually identical to the seven-point lead he held a month ago. If the Illinois senator's lead of 52 percent to 46 percent in the Dispatch poll holds, he will become the first Democrat to win more than 50 percent of the Ohio vote since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, according to the newspaper.
More (http://news.yahoo.com/s/bloomberg/20081102/pl_bloomberg/auhtmmrfebu)

I would trust the polling of the Dispatch, a local paper, more than that of the Times, but in either case, McCain is way behind with only a couple of days to go.

[Republican_Legion]

Polls are Inaccurate and over sample democrats.

[The_Elucidator]

Trust polls at your own peril.

DtS, could you do some research and find out what the Dispatch used as their weighted sample?

[DeclinetoState]

I can't find any internals on the Dispatch poll. It does appear that the Dispatch favors Obama, however, so I don't know if that means anything. The fact that he's over 50% would indicate that undecideds will have no effect in the state, however.

[The_Elucidator]

As of Friday the early votes in Colorado to include mail-ins:


Dems-----488,575-----37.846%
Pubs------465,869-----36.087%
Ind-------336,511-----26.066%


Total votes casted...1,290,955

Doesn't that kind of represent what we have been saying all along. Isn't that pretty close to what we really expect as far as party breakdown? Not 10% in favor of the 'Rats..

THESE ARE HARD NUMBERS FOLKS!!!

See for yourself (http://www.elections.colorado.gov/WWW/default/GoVoteColorado/general_election_transaction_report.pdf)

Hang in there and don't believe what you are hearing about the polls. They are incomptently wrong!!

[DeclinetoState]

Independent Florida voters are on the verge of killing Sen. John McCain's hopes for the presidency.

A new St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll shows Sen. Barack Obama leading McCain 49 percent to 42 percent in this state McCain cannot afford to lose. The biggest factor? Less partisan independent voters moving to Obama by a ratio of more than 2-to-1.

...

At a time when economic anxiety trumps all issues in Florida, about half of the voters surveyed — and almost six in 10 independents — said Obama has a better plan to improve the economy, while one in three voters said McCain does. Forty-five percent said Obama has shown the most leadership on the economy, and 34 percent said McCain.

"The predominant color in Florida right now is neither blue nor red — it's green," said pollster Kellyanne Conway. "The financial concerns, money concerns, dominate voters' calculus."

Conway, whose company works mostly with Republicans, questioned the effectiveness of McCain's recent campaign strategy.

"Trying to connect Barack Obama to Bill Ayers, rather than connect McCain to the average voter in the economy has … been dubious," she said, referring to the 1960s radical who was an Obama acquaintance years ago.
Link (http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/state/article868614.ece)

To be fair, however, this poll was taken two weeks ago, and thus could be way off by now. On the other hand, it should be noted that Conway is a conservative Republican pollster, and thus unlikely to "cook the figures" for the Democrats.

PDF file of poll questions and results (http://www.pollingcompany.com/cms/files/1008%20FL%20Media%20Spot%20Toplines.pdf).