The_Elucidator
03-15-2007, 02:53 PM
POLITISCOPE
Front-Runners-In-Waiting?
By John Mercurio (jmercurio@nationaljournal.com), NationalJournal.com
© National Journal Group Inc.
Thursday, March 15, 2007
Republicans mostly shrugged this week when former Sen. Fred Thompson, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel moved closer (to varying degrees) to entering the 2008 presidential campaign. But shrugs can be deceiving.
Recent developments point to a level of unrest among Republicans, especially conservatives, that suggests the party could be poised for a major realignment.
In fact, Republicans are increasingly nervous about their prospects in 2008, according to public polling and interviews with top GOP strategists. And this prominent trio of would-be candidates is viewed by some as a shadow top tier, strategically waiting for the current field of front-runners to fade before joining the race later this year.
Each of them has unique assets, including broad name recognition in widely different venues and political environments, which would allow them to mount late-breaking fights for the party nomination. But their recent maneuvering indicates that the unexpectedly aggressive bid by large states to jump to the front of the 2008 calendar has forced them to move up and recalibrate their own planning.
http://nationaljournal.com/mercurio.htm
-- snip --
One major challenge for all three of them: the calendar. It's hard to envision a successful road map to the GOP nomination that doesn't travel through the Aug. 11 straw poll in Ames, Iowa. While Iowa politicos consider it an overly hyped event run to raise money for the party, others consider it more vital to a candidate's viability than the caucuses themselves.
Unless Thompson/Gingrich/Hagel start organizing this spring, they're unlikely to compete well there. But then, isn't that what each of them started to do this week?
Front-Runners-In-Waiting?
By John Mercurio (jmercurio@nationaljournal.com), NationalJournal.com
© National Journal Group Inc.
Thursday, March 15, 2007
Republicans mostly shrugged this week when former Sen. Fred Thompson, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel moved closer (to varying degrees) to entering the 2008 presidential campaign. But shrugs can be deceiving.
Recent developments point to a level of unrest among Republicans, especially conservatives, that suggests the party could be poised for a major realignment.
In fact, Republicans are increasingly nervous about their prospects in 2008, according to public polling and interviews with top GOP strategists. And this prominent trio of would-be candidates is viewed by some as a shadow top tier, strategically waiting for the current field of front-runners to fade before joining the race later this year.
Each of them has unique assets, including broad name recognition in widely different venues and political environments, which would allow them to mount late-breaking fights for the party nomination. But their recent maneuvering indicates that the unexpectedly aggressive bid by large states to jump to the front of the 2008 calendar has forced them to move up and recalibrate their own planning.
http://nationaljournal.com/mercurio.htm
-- snip --
One major challenge for all three of them: the calendar. It's hard to envision a successful road map to the GOP nomination that doesn't travel through the Aug. 11 straw poll in Ames, Iowa. While Iowa politicos consider it an overly hyped event run to raise money for the party, others consider it more vital to a candidate's viability than the caucuses themselves.
Unless Thompson/Gingrich/Hagel start organizing this spring, they're unlikely to compete well there. But then, isn't that what each of them started to do this week?