DeclinetoState
03-21-2007, 06:47 PM
A couple of the SCOPE (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_committee_on_problems_of_the_environmen t) reports (13 and 27, from memory) are worth a look. NEW! [2005/01] RealClimate post (http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=94) - this may be a slightly more comprehensible intro to this subject.
NEW! [2004/11/10] National Geographic, 1976 (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/nat-geog-1976-11.html)
[2004/07/09] Flohn, 1979, Quat Res (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/flohn-quat-res-1979.html)
[2004/04/20] A climate book by H H Lamb (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/lamb-1982.html) (or bits of one)
[2004/01/02] Short note on the 1970 SCEP report (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/scep-1970.html).
[2004/02/07] Misc stuff from non science journals (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/misc-non-science.html) (so far only holds a newsweek 1975 article).
[2004/01/02] Short note on the 1970 SCEP report (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/scep-1970.html).
[2003/08/26] World Climate Conference, 1979 (esp Hare) (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/wcc-1979.html).
[2003/08/08] Kukla and Matthews, Science, 1972 (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/kukla-matthews-science-1972.html).
[2003/06/17] Stephen Schneider, The Genesis Strategy (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/schneider-genesis.html) (I've only just got round to uploading it)
[2003/05/03] Howorth, 1905 (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/howorth_1905.html)
[2003/04/16] G.J. Kukla, Nature, 253, 600-3, 1975: "Missing link between Milankovitch and climate" (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/kukla.1975.html)
[2002/09/26] Quaternary Research, 1972: "The end of the present interglacial" (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/quat_res_1972.html)
[2002/04/25] Some notes from Imbrie&Imbrie, 1980 (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/imbrie-1980.html)
[21/12/2001] Asimov: from a lecture in 1974 (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/asimov.html)
[04/09/2001] Lowell Ponte: the cooling. An analysis (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/ponte.html)
[04/09/2001] A look at chapter 16 of Imbrie and Imbrie: Ice ages: solving the mystery (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/imbrie2-1979.html)
[30/06/2001] Review of the not-very famous US National Academy of Sciences 1975 Report (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/nas-1975.html)
[28/06/2001] An article by Alison George, based on a talk I gave, in the Grauniad (http://www.guardianunlimited.co.uk/science/story/0,3605,513532,00.html), or I have archived it here (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/0,3605,513532,00.html). Its not actually terribly clear: some time I must rant about journalists...
<table style="width: 519px; height: 510px;"> <tbody><tr><td> To clarify a little: I am interested in "Was an imminent Ice Age predicted in the '70's by scientists, in scientific journals?". That means articles in scientific journals and reputable books. I am not particularly interested in what appeared in the popular press or on TV and do not intend to discuss it here (but see context (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/calder.context.html)), since I do not regard these as reliable sources for scientific information. Note that many of the oh-there-was-an-ice-age-predicted type articles tend to focus on non-science articles for their sources: newsweek, for example. This is cheating on their part. Newsweek isn't science, of course. If newsweek was quoting peer-reviewed journals, then they should go back to those.
We also need to know what we mean by "imminent". Since the question arises in the context of the greenhouse gas/climate change debate, "imminent" is a timescale comparable to greenhouse-type timescales: ie, the next century or so. See below (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/#longterm) for my take on long-term predictions.
Comments, clarifications and corrections to this page are welcome see comments (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/comments.html) or mail wmc@bas.ac.uk.
</td> <td width="125"> <script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-2756817269636005"; google_ad_width = 125; google_ad_height = 125; google_ad_format = "125x125_as"; google_ad_channel =""; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/index_files/show_ads.js"> </script><iframe name="google_ads_frame" src="http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/index_files/ads.htm" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" vspace="0" hspace="0" allowtransparency="true" frameborder="0" height="125" scrolling="no" width="125"></iframe> </td> </tr></tbody></table>
If you think you have a new reference that may be interesting, please send it to me. I don't guarantee to check it out immeadiately: you will need to have patience. However, I will list all outstanding references below: <table width="80%"><tbody><tr><td width="15%">
</td> <td> Just in: these 2 both mention a 1972 letter, amongst other things. Interesting! I haven't read them properly yet.
http://www.meteohistory.org/2004polling_preprints/docs/abstracts/reeves&etal_abstract.pdf
http://www.weizmann.ac.il/ESER/People/yinon/courses/climate_variability_lecture.pdf</td></tr></tbody></table>Science-type stuff (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/)
NEW! [2004/11/10] National Geographic, 1976 (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/nat-geog-1976-11.html)
[2004/07/09] Flohn, 1979, Quat Res (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/flohn-quat-res-1979.html)
[2004/04/20] A climate book by H H Lamb (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/lamb-1982.html) (or bits of one)
[2004/01/02] Short note on the 1970 SCEP report (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/scep-1970.html).
[2004/02/07] Misc stuff from non science journals (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/misc-non-science.html) (so far only holds a newsweek 1975 article).
[2004/01/02] Short note on the 1970 SCEP report (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/scep-1970.html).
[2003/08/26] World Climate Conference, 1979 (esp Hare) (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/wcc-1979.html).
[2003/08/08] Kukla and Matthews, Science, 1972 (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/kukla-matthews-science-1972.html).
[2003/06/17] Stephen Schneider, The Genesis Strategy (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/schneider-genesis.html) (I've only just got round to uploading it)
[2003/05/03] Howorth, 1905 (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/howorth_1905.html)
[2003/04/16] G.J. Kukla, Nature, 253, 600-3, 1975: "Missing link between Milankovitch and climate" (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/kukla.1975.html)
[2002/09/26] Quaternary Research, 1972: "The end of the present interglacial" (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/quat_res_1972.html)
[2002/04/25] Some notes from Imbrie&Imbrie, 1980 (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/imbrie-1980.html)
[21/12/2001] Asimov: from a lecture in 1974 (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/asimov.html)
[04/09/2001] Lowell Ponte: the cooling. An analysis (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/ponte.html)
[04/09/2001] A look at chapter 16 of Imbrie and Imbrie: Ice ages: solving the mystery (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/imbrie2-1979.html)
[30/06/2001] Review of the not-very famous US National Academy of Sciences 1975 Report (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/nas-1975.html)
[28/06/2001] An article by Alison George, based on a talk I gave, in the Grauniad (http://www.guardianunlimited.co.uk/science/story/0,3605,513532,00.html), or I have archived it here (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/0,3605,513532,00.html). Its not actually terribly clear: some time I must rant about journalists...
<table style="width: 519px; height: 510px;"> <tbody><tr><td> To clarify a little: I am interested in "Was an imminent Ice Age predicted in the '70's by scientists, in scientific journals?". That means articles in scientific journals and reputable books. I am not particularly interested in what appeared in the popular press or on TV and do not intend to discuss it here (but see context (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/calder.context.html)), since I do not regard these as reliable sources for scientific information. Note that many of the oh-there-was-an-ice-age-predicted type articles tend to focus on non-science articles for their sources: newsweek, for example. This is cheating on their part. Newsweek isn't science, of course. If newsweek was quoting peer-reviewed journals, then they should go back to those.
We also need to know what we mean by "imminent". Since the question arises in the context of the greenhouse gas/climate change debate, "imminent" is a timescale comparable to greenhouse-type timescales: ie, the next century or so. See below (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/#longterm) for my take on long-term predictions.
Comments, clarifications and corrections to this page are welcome see comments (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/comments.html) or mail wmc@bas.ac.uk.
</td> <td width="125"> <script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-2756817269636005"; google_ad_width = 125; google_ad_height = 125; google_ad_format = "125x125_as"; google_ad_channel =""; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/index_files/show_ads.js"> </script><iframe name="google_ads_frame" src="http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/index_files/ads.htm" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" vspace="0" hspace="0" allowtransparency="true" frameborder="0" height="125" scrolling="no" width="125"></iframe> </td> </tr></tbody></table>
If you think you have a new reference that may be interesting, please send it to me. I don't guarantee to check it out immeadiately: you will need to have patience. However, I will list all outstanding references below: <table width="80%"><tbody><tr><td width="15%">
</td> <td> Just in: these 2 both mention a 1972 letter, amongst other things. Interesting! I haven't read them properly yet.
http://www.meteohistory.org/2004polling_preprints/docs/abstracts/reeves&etal_abstract.pdf
http://www.weizmann.ac.il/ESER/People/yinon/courses/climate_variability_lecture.pdf</td></tr></tbody></table>Science-type stuff (http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/)