The_Elucidator
03-22-2007, 05:09 PM
March 22, 2007
The Numbers in Ohio & Pennsylvania (http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2007/03/the_numbers_in_ohio_pennsylvan.html)
Posted by JOHN MCINTYRE | E-Mail This (http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2007/03/the_numbers_in_ohio_pennsylvan.html#) | Permalink (http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2007/03/the_numbers_in_ohio_pennsylvan.html) | Email Author (info@realclearpolitics.com)
President Bush carried Ohio by 3.5% in 2000 and 2.1% in 2004 (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/oh_polls.html), while losing Pennsylvania by 4.2% in 2000 and 2.5% in 2004 (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/pa_polls.html). Ohio's electoral votes (21 in 2000 and 20 in 2004) were crucial to Bush's victory in both elections.
Last year brought wipeouts for the GOP in both states as Democrats pounded incumbent Republican Senators Mike DeWine and Rick Santorum by 12 and 17 points (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/writeup/2006_senate_realclearpolitics_poll_averages-63.html), respectively. The gubernatorial races were even worse for the GOP as Ted Strickland won in Ohio by 24 and Ed Rendell in Pennsylvania by 21. Four incumbent House Republicans went down in Pennsylvania alone (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/writeup/election_2006_key_house_results-55.html).
That's the bad news for Republicans. The good news is that on the Presidential level for this cycle these are two states Democrats have to win to get over 270 electoral votes. Given the Republican stranglehold in the South, Pennsylvania is for all intents and purposes a "must-win" state for Democrats. And while there are ways a Democrat can get to 270 electoral votes without Ohio, realistically it is hard to imagine any scenario where the Democrats could win the White House and not carry Ohio.
http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2007/03/the_numbers_in_ohio_pennsylvan.html
-- snip --
In Ohio, the new Quinnipiac University poll (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1029) also has Clinton ahead by 10 (Clinton 32, Obama 22, Gore 14, Edwards 11). On the Republican side Giuliani is ahead by 11 (Giuliani 31, McCain 20, Gingrich 8, Thompson 6, Romney 6). This is the first poll I have seen with Fred Thompson in the field, and the fact he immediately is drawing as much support as Romney highlights Romney's disappointing run to date as well as Thompson's potential to be a serious contender.
This is the first true poll with Thompson included in it! My guess is that his only carrying 6 percent is due to him not actually being an official candidate! I fully expect it to start rising rapidly upon announcing his candidacy.
The Numbers in Ohio & Pennsylvania (http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2007/03/the_numbers_in_ohio_pennsylvan.html)
Posted by JOHN MCINTYRE | E-Mail This (http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2007/03/the_numbers_in_ohio_pennsylvan.html#) | Permalink (http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2007/03/the_numbers_in_ohio_pennsylvan.html) | Email Author (info@realclearpolitics.com)
President Bush carried Ohio by 3.5% in 2000 and 2.1% in 2004 (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/oh_polls.html), while losing Pennsylvania by 4.2% in 2000 and 2.5% in 2004 (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/pa_polls.html). Ohio's electoral votes (21 in 2000 and 20 in 2004) were crucial to Bush's victory in both elections.
Last year brought wipeouts for the GOP in both states as Democrats pounded incumbent Republican Senators Mike DeWine and Rick Santorum by 12 and 17 points (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/writeup/2006_senate_realclearpolitics_poll_averages-63.html), respectively. The gubernatorial races were even worse for the GOP as Ted Strickland won in Ohio by 24 and Ed Rendell in Pennsylvania by 21. Four incumbent House Republicans went down in Pennsylvania alone (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/writeup/election_2006_key_house_results-55.html).
That's the bad news for Republicans. The good news is that on the Presidential level for this cycle these are two states Democrats have to win to get over 270 electoral votes. Given the Republican stranglehold in the South, Pennsylvania is for all intents and purposes a "must-win" state for Democrats. And while there are ways a Democrat can get to 270 electoral votes without Ohio, realistically it is hard to imagine any scenario where the Democrats could win the White House and not carry Ohio.
http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2007/03/the_numbers_in_ohio_pennsylvan.html
-- snip --
In Ohio, the new Quinnipiac University poll (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1029) also has Clinton ahead by 10 (Clinton 32, Obama 22, Gore 14, Edwards 11). On the Republican side Giuliani is ahead by 11 (Giuliani 31, McCain 20, Gingrich 8, Thompson 6, Romney 6). This is the first poll I have seen with Fred Thompson in the field, and the fact he immediately is drawing as much support as Romney highlights Romney's disappointing run to date as well as Thompson's potential to be a serious contender.
This is the first true poll with Thompson included in it! My guess is that his only carrying 6 percent is due to him not actually being an official candidate! I fully expect it to start rising rapidly upon announcing his candidacy.