Right here, Right now! Prediction for order of finish in Iowa Caucus

[The_Elucidator]

I want to start running this through the primaries to see who has the best track record for calling races based on "gut" instinct and the ability to read the pulse of the electorate and polling. Please try and keep this free from bashing candidates and or participants!

I'll start:

GOP:

Huck
FDT
McCain
Romney
Paul
Rudy

Democrat:

Obama
Edwards
Clinton (shocker)
Biden
Richardson
Dodd

[Timberwolf]

GOP:

Huck
FDT
Romney
McCain
Rudy
Paul


Democrat:

Obama
Clinton
Edwards (but, not too far from 2nd)
Biden
Richardson
Dodd

[TeenageRepublican]

I want to start running this through the primaries to see who has the best track record for calling races based on "gut" instinct and the ability to read the pulse of the electorate and polling. Please try and keep this free from bashing candidates and or participants!

I'll start:

GOP:

Huck
FDT
McCain
Romney
Paul
Rudy

Democrat:

Obama
Edwards
Clinton (shocker)
Biden
Richardson
Dodd

I actually agree completely with this list.

[Jack_Savage]

Rudy
Fred
McCain
Romney
Huckabee

Clinton (who will pick Obama as VP)
Edwards
Obama
Biden

[Teenager]

GOP:

Romney
Thompson
Huckabee
Rudy
McCain
Paul


Democrat:

Obama
Clinton
Edwards
Biden
Richardson
Dodd

[Rhino]

Rudy
Fred
McCain
Romney
Huckabee...That would definitely be one heck of a come from behind finish, since Rudy is dead last in all the polls. Stranger things have happened though, and caucuses are a weird animal.

[The_Elucidator]

That would definitely be one heck of a come from behind finish, since Rudy is dead last in all the polls. Stranger things have happened though, and caucuses are a weird animal.

Come on Rhino...take a shot at it... :evilgrin:

[Naturalized-Texan]

GOP:

Huck
Fred
Mitt
McCain
Rudy
Paul

Dims:

Obama
Hitlery
Edwards
Biden
Richardson

[Rhino]

Come on Rhino...take a shot at it... :evilgrin:I don't honestly know. Caucuses are strange, and polls are often notoriously inaccurate. However, they can often serve as a general indicator as opposed to an outright prediction, and coming from dead last in the polls to a first place finish isn't very likely. I won't say it's impossible, but I highly doubt it.

[The_Elucidator]

I don't honestly know. Caucuses are strange, and polls are often notoriously inaccurate. However, they can often serve as a general indicator as opposed to an outright prediction, and coming from dead last in the polls to a first place finish isn't very likely. I won't say it's impossible, but I highly doubt it.

Well as far as FDT goes, one highly encouraging statistic in many of the polls is the fact that he polls so very well as the number 2 pick. That is what gives me hope for a strong finish.

On another note, the latest Pew Research poll shows McCain inching up to a virtual tie in the Super Tuesday polls.

Man I love politics, but unlike football the wife doesn't give me any crap about my political fanaticism... :biggrin:

[Jack_Savage]

That would definitely be one heck of a come from behind finish, since Rudy is dead last in all the polls. Stranger things have happened though, and caucuses are a weird animal.


If this poll was for Iowa, I speed read Luc's thread, yes your correct, my post was for the order of nomination.

for Iowa, I suppose with the inside network thinking it would be:

Huck
Romney
Fred
McCain
Rudy
RP

Clinton
Obama
Edwards

[THEBIRD]

Lets see if my opinion gets deleted again.

Romney
Huckster
Paul
McCain
Thompson
Rudy
Hunter
Keyes

Obama
Clinton
Edwards

[Suzie]

I don't like it, but since Rudy has bombed so badly and his support seems to be going to McCain I fear the RINO group has doomed us.

GOP:
McCain
Huck
FDT
Romney
Paul
Rudy

Democrat:
Edwards
Obama
Clinton
Biden
Richardson
Dodd

[TeenageRepublican]

If Fred Thompson doesn't end up at least running as VP, I will vote for Cthulhu. I will, he admits to being evil, unlike Hillary Clinton.

http://www.cthulhu.org/cthulhu/positions.html

And all the Lovecraft fans on this board should join me if FDT doesn't end up running at least as VP.

[Suzie]

Back to the topic at hand, do we win something if we get the most right? :lol:

[Rhino]

Bragging rights.

[Suzie]

Well that's no fun ... okay maybe it is, a little. :lol:

[Rhino]

Of course, people will then expect you to get the others right, so the silver lining has a cloud.

[ThomasMore]

Republicans:

Romney
Yuck
McPain
FDT
RuPaul
Rudy

HERE (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html#market) are the Real Clear Politics metadata for Iowa Republicans

Dems:

Clinton -- amazing what buying and arm-twisting will do.
Edwards
Obama
Richards
Biden

HERE (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html) are the metadata for Iowa Dems.

[Longhorn_Platinum]

:unsmile: Romney
McCain
Huckabee
Thompson
Giuliani

O[s]ama
Clinton
Edwards
Richardson
Biden

[Timberwolf]

GOP:

Huck
FDT
Romney
McCain
Rudy
Paul


Democrat:

Obama
Clinton
Edwards (but, not too far from 2nd)
Biden
Richardson
Dodd
I'm editing my Pub list:

McCain
FDT
Romney
Huck
Rudy
Paul

[Beowulf]

GOP:

Romney
Huck
FDT
McCain
Rudy
Paul

Dems:
Who cares!

[ThomasMore]

Republicans:

Romney
Yuck
McPain
FDT
RuPaul
Rudy

HERE (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html#market) are the Real Clear Politics metadata for Iowa Republicans

Dems:

Clinton -- amazing what buying and arm-twisting will do.
Edwards
Obama
Richards
Biden

HERE (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html) are the metadata for Iowa Dems.

I'm editing my Pub list:

McCain
FDT
Romney
Huck
Rudy
Paul

GOP:

Romney
Huck
FDT
McCain
Rudy
Paul

Dems:
Who cares!

Like TW, I'm editing my 'Pub list, too. I think Beo is right on the money.

Was:

Romney
Huckabee
McCain
Thompson
RuPaul
Rudy

Is:

Romney
Huckabee
Thompson
McCain
http://cache.deadspin.com/archives/rupaul%5D.jpg
Rudy

Romney and Huckabee are neck-and-neck. There has been some last minute momentum going Romney's way, aided by Fox News's coverage of Romney and Rush's lambasting of Huckabee.

I think a last-minute surge (see Zogby's polling) will squeak Thompson past McCain.

[Justaguy]

Huck
Romney
Dr. Paul
McCain
Fred
Rudy

That's pretty much the way I see it, and there will be less than 7 points separating the top three.

On the Dim side... Who cares.

[CzechPrince]

Republicans:

Huckatrash
Flip Romney
McCain
Rudy
Thompson
Paul

Democrats:

Hillary
Obama
Edwards
Biden
<!-- / message --><!-- sig --> Richardson

[Eagle1]

GOP:
Romney
Huck
FDT
McCain
Rudy
Paul


Democrat:
Edwards
Clinton
Obama
Richardson
Biden
Dodd

[Maggie_T]

I have only one thing to say. If the Huckster is going to continue winning, BRUSH UP ON YOUR SPANISH, GUYS! This man is a sucker for illegal immigration (he thinks it's a sort of reparations; 'nuff said).

I cannot for the life of me understand what people are thinking about. I want to believe that it's Iowa, a blue state, so what do you expect. Still, I am uneasy.

Jim is, of course, glued to the TV. I'll go to cosmetics websites. My equivalent of comfort food. I'll learn about new scents and makeup, and have a great time. I cannot take politics today. I've been depressed all day because I've been missing my recently deceased father more often than other days, and that's plunged me into the pits. Maybe because he was always so interested in American politics.

I'll be back tomorrow, hopefully to see that the Huckster's numbers have gone considerably down.

Night, guys.

[DesertFox]

Maggie, get over your funk. You too good-lookin' to go moping around. Show us some teeth! Laugh! Run over a lib!

Get with it, girl, we all on your side.

[Wyatt_Junker]

The Eye Oh Uh Cock Us is real extra something special up there in I Owe Uhhh. A real fine lens into the soul, the deep interior, of this country. A monocle of insight on which importantest people we want to run our cuntry. I think ETIQUETTE should be high on the list. Who holds open doors for whom. Who holds in their farts the longest. Who can slam the most Pennyroyal tea in a single sitting. Who can fake the best British accent. Who can ask for Grey Poupon with the most authority.

Because we, in America, love aristocracies, especially in white houses. Its like a formal prom, politics. Bad suits. Bad disco. And bad breath.

And... horrible rhetoric.

But maybe the i ohhh uhhh coke us will learn us all a wonderful lesson about which candidate knows which dinner fork to use to stab at their Caesar salad. Obama or Hillary or Huckabe? Who's the best liar? Who's the best tool? Who has the best smile? The best haircut? Uses the most Brylcream?

Cause I know it would never be me. If I came out into the debates, my fly would be open and I'd have drops of peanut butter and jelly on my chest. I would skunk them in the debate, but I'm not camera... ready. I'm even more handsome than Ted Danson at the height of his Cheers career, but I don't clean up very good. Some women say I'm everything they want in a man and more. A ton of more. Its just that this country couldn't handle what I've got. Which is to say, loads and loads of being damn right.

[UnkHiram]

I wont hazard any guess's mainly because the results have started coming in (almost Nine now). I will admit I am shocked by the results. Maybe (Probably just a pipedream) this will derail the Clinton Express.

[DesertFox]

Who holds in their farts the longest. That's downright unAmerican.

[Rhino]

Yeah, that's French, man!

[Lazarus]

I have only one thing to say. If the Huckster is going to continue winning, BRUSH UP ON YOUR SPANISH, GUYS! This man is a sucker for illegal immigration (he thinks it's a sort of reparations; 'nuff said).

I cannot for the life of me understand what people are thinking about. I want to believe that it's Iowa, a blue state, so what do you expect. Still, I am uneasy....Firstly, Maggie right about learning Spanish... Huckabee is IMO the most damgerous candidate on the ticket because he's actively trying to disguise what he is - He is all the worst attributes of Bush - all the betrayals of American sovereignty and culture that have angered most of the membership of this board on the immigration issue... He intends to not only give them amnesty, but he intends to open the coffers of Social Security to these foreign invaders... Even FDR must be spinning in his grave at this insanity...

As for the meaning of the Iowa results, Don't be concerned over it - Iowa, and New Hampshire, are red herrings in the overall primary process... They are the media sweethearts of the election season for two reasons...

1) The media look to elections like the rest of us look forward to a night of steaming hot monkey sex with the one we love... They are sexual deviants over politics... If politics was porn movie, the media would be all those perverts in dirty raincoats spanking the monkey in the dark... And as such, the first states to step up on the stage are their favorite porn stars...

And 2) Both Iowa and New Hampshire are LIBERAL states... Thus the media, in their frenzied zeal to try to convince America to convert to Socialism at the earliest possible moment, make Iowa and New Hampshire out to be the standard by which the rest of the primaries are to strive for... IOW, when their favorite Democrat Commie and Republican RINO win these two primaries, they sing their praises and raise them on high in an attempt to dumb down the American voters, discouraging them from thinking for themselves, but instead to accept "the inevitable"...

Believe me, if the first two primaries were Alabama and Mississippi, the media coverage would be 180 degrees different... And Fred Thompson would be on top...

Personally Im looking forward to getting past New Hampshire so we can get into some real primaries that count...

[The_Elucidator]

Because we had some folks do pretty good in predicting the outcome!

Those who picked the winner in the GOP:

Luc
Teenage Republican
TW
NT
D4R
Justaguy
CP

Those who picked the winner for the Democrats:

Luc
Teenage Republican
TW
Teenager
NT
THEBIRD
LP

Those who got the top 3 right in either party:

Luc - Democrat
Teenage Republican - Democrat

I must admit that in picking I had picked the GOP on the best case outcome rather than what I thought it would be. I will go with straight logic and factor out the homer in N.H.

Thanks for participating!!

Start doing your research for Tuesday!!! :thumb:

[Lazarus]

Wait Wait!!! I didnt see this thread till this morning... Let me give you my predictions for Iowa...........:unsmile:










Thus, laz demonstrates the insignificance of this media orgasm they call the Iowa caucus...:rolleyes::D

[Rhino]

How did the pollsters do? Blue is correct. Red is wrong.

American Research Group
Huckabee
Romney
McCain
Paul
Thompson

Zogby
Huckabee
Romney
Thompson
McCain/Paul (tie)

Insider Advantage
Huckabee
Romney
McCain/Thompson (tie)(percentagewise, this is correct)
Paul

Strategic Vision
Romney
Huckabee
McCain
Thompson
Paul

Des Moines Register
Huckabee
Romney
McCain
Thompson
Paul

CNN
Romney
Huckabee
McCain
Thompson
Paul

LA Times/Bloomberg (last reported 12/26)
Huckabee
Romney
Thompson
McCain
Giuliani

Rasmussen (last reported 12/17?)
Huckabee
Romney
McCain
Thompson/Giuliani (tie)

ABC/Washington Post (last reported 12/17?)
Huckabee
Romney
Thompson
McCain
Paul/Giuliani (tie)

I could have sworn Rasmussen had more recent predictions, but I guess not.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html

[Rhino]

I forgot.

RCP Average
Des Moines Register
Huckabee
Romney
McCain
Thompson
Paul

However, they had McCain and Thompson within .1% of each other, so you could say they were correct.

[Justaguy]

Zogby
Huckabee
Romney
Thompson
McCain/Paul (tie)

Insider Advantage
Huckabee
Romney
McCain/Thompson (tie)(percentagewise, this is correct)
Paul

These two did pretty good.

[Rhino]

Yep, and so did the RCP average. Let's see how well they hold up with the remaining primaries.

[Lazarus]

CNN
Romney
Huckabee
McCain
Thompson
Paulbwahahahahaha!!!:rotflmbo:

[Rhino]

Interesting map.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/2/26/Republican_Primary_Presidential_Polling_Map.png

Found here (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_(United_S tates)_presidential_primaries,_2008).

[Rhino]

Other RCP averages:

New Hampshire - 24 delegates
McCain 31.3
Romney 29.8
Giuliani 10
Huckabee 9.5
Paul 7
Thompson 2

Michigan - 61 delegates
Romney 19.8
Huckabee 18.8
McCain 13
Giuliani 12.5
Thompson 6.5
Paul 4.3

Nevada - 34 delegates
Giuliani 23.7
Romney 23.7
Huckabee 15.3
Thompson 9.7
McCain 7.3
Paul 5

South Carolina - 47 delegates
Huckabee 25.8
Romney 19.3
Thompson 13.5
McCain 13
Giuliani 12.8
Paul 6.3

Florida - 114 delegates
Giuliani 25.3
Huckabee 23.3
Romney 19
McCain 11
Thompson 8.8
Paul 3.3

[Lazarus]

Yeah but Rhino those numbers are so incredibly stale how relevant could they be? Polls taken prior to Oct 1st?:confused:

[TeenageRepublican]

Interesting map.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/2/26/Republican_Primary_Presidential_Polling_Map.png

Found here (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_(United_S tates)_presidential_primaries,_2008).

Colorado's a Fred state! Woot! This is why I have faith that Thompson will do well in Wyoming...which is two hours away from here.

[Rhino]

Yeah but Rhino those numbers are so incredibly stale how relevant could they be? Polls taken prior to Oct 1st?:confused:They're all in December/January, except for one Nevada poll (out of three) from November.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national-primary.html (state links in the left column)

[CzechPrince]

He is all the worst attributes of Bush

I could not have put it better myself.

[Sir Andrew]

Other RCP averages:

New Hampshire - 24 delegates
McCain 31.3
Romney 29.8
Giuliani 10
Huckabee 9.5
Paul 7
Thompson 2

Michigan - 61 delegates
Romney 19.8
Huckabee 18.8
McCain 13
Giuliani 12.5
Thompson 6.5
Paul 4.3

Nevada - 34 delegates
Giuliani 23.7
Romney 23.7
Huckabee 15.3
Thompson 9.7
McCain 7.3
Paul 5

South Carolina - 47 delegates
Huckabee 25.8
Romney 19.3
Thompson 13.5
McCain 13
Giuliani 12.8
Paul 6.3

Florida - 114 delegates
Giuliani 25.3
Huckabee 23.3
Romney 19
McCain 11
Thompson 8.8
Paul 3.3

Real Clear Politics is probably the worst poll site out there.

All they do is average in a bunch of biased polls and call it "real clear"

[ThomasMore]

Real Clear Politics is probably the worst poll site out there.

All they do is average in a bunch of biased polls and call it "real clear"

You're joking, I assume. (Or doing something else that starts with T.. and ends with ..ll)

Real Clear Politics (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/) is the name of the website -- which is a clearinghouse for opinion and analysis.

RCP also makes available many pollers' results. In addition, (to your point) RCP takes an average of the polls. While any metadata are suspect and the methodology must be taken into account, they are sometimes useful information.

The RCP average did pretty well in picking the candidates' final positions -- so in this case, your point was proven wrong even as you typed it out.

[ThomasMore]

Interesting map.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/2/26/Republican_Primary_Presidential_Polling_Map.png

Found here (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_(United_S tates)_presidential_primaries,_2008).

Fred only has one state solidly (Miss), and two weakly (Tenn and Colo). Hope that changes soon.

[Suzie]

Maybe that's why I am afraid McCain is on the climb. :lol:

[Rhino]

Real Clear Politics is probably the worst poll site out there.

All they do is average in a bunch of biased polls and call it "real clear"And your suggestion of a better source would be???????

Seriously, if you know anything about statistical data, what RCP does is probably the most reliable methodology. However, as is often stated here, no poll is that reliable, and they are usually only good for general trend indications at best.

[CzechPrince]

Fred only has one state solidly (Miss), and two weakly (Tenn and Colo). Hope that changes soon.

That's Alabama :thumb: