sunsettommy
06-22-2008, 12:11 PM
So many good articles to post.Here is a great one:
Keplunk
Friday, 20 June 2008
"Saturated greenhouse effect" wrecks climate models (http://ker-plunk.blogspot.com/2008/06/saturated-greenhouse-effect-wrecks.html)
EXCERPT:
Ken Gregory from Friends of Science summarises the work done by Ferenc Miskolczi demonstrating that the atmospheric greenhouse effect is controlled by water vapour content and that the system maintains equilibrium via this mechanism.
It's an important step to understanding why the predictions of the IPCC's computer models cannot possibly be correct.
The paper, Greenhouse Effect in Semi-Transparent Planetary Atmospheres by Ferenc M. Miskolczi (http://met.hu/idojaras/IDOJARAS_vol111_No1_01.pdf) shows that the current greenhouse effect equations are incomplete because they do not include the correct boundary conditions. The new theory presented in this paper shows that the atmosphere maintains a “saturated” greenhouse effect, controlled by water vapor content.
Considering that we are told "the science is settled", one would think that the strength of the greenhouse effect (GHE) on Earth could be determined by atmospheric physics. That is, the computer models of the atmosphere would incorporate the physics of how the greenhouse effect works, input some measured physical properties the atmospheric gases, and the models will determine the strength of the greenhouse effect and the surface temperatures. Unfortunately, this is not the case.
There is no physics, no equations in the models that determines the strength of the GHE. Parameters are just set to obtain the observed temperature.
The GHE is dominated by water vapour, so how it changes with increasing CO2 is critical.
All the General Circulation Models (GCM) or more commonly called Global Climate Models just set:
Relative humidity = constant (or various parameters to achieve the same effect.)
There is no physics in support of this assumption, and no way to calculate its value from first principles. This assumption means that if temperatures increase for any reason, the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere increases. But water vapor is the most important greenhouse gas, so the GHE becomes stronger and temperatures increase more. The current theory does not determine this - it is only an assumption. If this assumption is only slightly wrong, it completely changes the expected response of increasing CO2 because water vapour is such a dominant greenhouse gas.
The assumption, that relative humidity is constant when CO2 concentrations increase, is completely absurd. This violates fundamental energy conservation laws. There are not separate energy balance equations for different greenhouse gases. There is not one set for water vapor, and a different set for CO2; there is one set of energy balance equations for the total atmosphere including all greenhouse gases. So it makes no sense to assign an arbitrary rule for one of the greenhouse gases.
There is a near infinite supply of greenhouse gases available to the atmosphere in the form of water vapor from the ocean to provide the greenhouse effect, but the relative humidity in the atmosphere is much less than one. Therefore, there must be some greenhouse equilibrium mechanism to control, the strength of the greenhouse effect and the relative humidity. Otherwise, climate would be very unstable.
MORE HERE (http://ker-plunk.blogspot.com/2008/06/saturated-greenhouse-effect-wrecks.html)
Keplunk
Friday, 20 June 2008
"Saturated greenhouse effect" wrecks climate models (http://ker-plunk.blogspot.com/2008/06/saturated-greenhouse-effect-wrecks.html)
EXCERPT:
Ken Gregory from Friends of Science summarises the work done by Ferenc Miskolczi demonstrating that the atmospheric greenhouse effect is controlled by water vapour content and that the system maintains equilibrium via this mechanism.
It's an important step to understanding why the predictions of the IPCC's computer models cannot possibly be correct.
The paper, Greenhouse Effect in Semi-Transparent Planetary Atmospheres by Ferenc M. Miskolczi (http://met.hu/idojaras/IDOJARAS_vol111_No1_01.pdf) shows that the current greenhouse effect equations are incomplete because they do not include the correct boundary conditions. The new theory presented in this paper shows that the atmosphere maintains a “saturated” greenhouse effect, controlled by water vapor content.
Considering that we are told "the science is settled", one would think that the strength of the greenhouse effect (GHE) on Earth could be determined by atmospheric physics. That is, the computer models of the atmosphere would incorporate the physics of how the greenhouse effect works, input some measured physical properties the atmospheric gases, and the models will determine the strength of the greenhouse effect and the surface temperatures. Unfortunately, this is not the case.
There is no physics, no equations in the models that determines the strength of the GHE. Parameters are just set to obtain the observed temperature.
The GHE is dominated by water vapour, so how it changes with increasing CO2 is critical.
All the General Circulation Models (GCM) or more commonly called Global Climate Models just set:
Relative humidity = constant (or various parameters to achieve the same effect.)
There is no physics in support of this assumption, and no way to calculate its value from first principles. This assumption means that if temperatures increase for any reason, the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere increases. But water vapor is the most important greenhouse gas, so the GHE becomes stronger and temperatures increase more. The current theory does not determine this - it is only an assumption. If this assumption is only slightly wrong, it completely changes the expected response of increasing CO2 because water vapour is such a dominant greenhouse gas.
The assumption, that relative humidity is constant when CO2 concentrations increase, is completely absurd. This violates fundamental energy conservation laws. There are not separate energy balance equations for different greenhouse gases. There is not one set for water vapor, and a different set for CO2; there is one set of energy balance equations for the total atmosphere including all greenhouse gases. So it makes no sense to assign an arbitrary rule for one of the greenhouse gases.
There is a near infinite supply of greenhouse gases available to the atmosphere in the form of water vapor from the ocean to provide the greenhouse effect, but the relative humidity in the atmosphere is much less than one. Therefore, there must be some greenhouse equilibrium mechanism to control, the strength of the greenhouse effect and the relative humidity. Otherwise, climate would be very unstable.
MORE HERE (http://ker-plunk.blogspot.com/2008/06/saturated-greenhouse-effect-wrecks.html)