Scalia Probably Has Heller

[GreatDredScott]

It does look exceptionally likely that Justice Scalia is writing the principal opinion for the Court in Heller – the D.C. guns case. That is the only opinion remaining from the sitting and he is the only member of the Court not to have written a majority opinion from the sitting. There is no indication that he lost a majority from March. His only dissent from the sitting is for two Justices in Indiana v. Edwards. So, that’s a good sign for advocates of a strong individual rights conception of the Second Amendment and a bad sign for D.C.

http://www.scotusblog.com/wp/wild-opinion-speculation/

[Maggie_T]

I guess we should know something by the end of the week. In the meantime, let's pray that Scalia does write the principal opinion.

[DesertFox]

I don't know what any of that means.

[DeclinetoState]

Thanks, DF, I was beginning to think I was missing something and/or losing my mind by not reading between the lines here.

[norman]

I expect a 5-4 decision with Justices Kennedy, Roberts, Alito, Thomas and Scalia deciding for Heller and against DC. When I heard Justice Kennedy articulate his personal position during oral arguments, this was my immediate assessment.

[GreatDredScott]

I don't know what any of that means.

Five things:

1. Most opinions of the Court are not 5-4 ideological divides. An awful lot are unanimous or near unanimous. Because of this, the Court is usually able to share the opinion authorship among the nine justices relatively equally. If a sitting (a subunit of a term) has nine cases, you'll often see each justice get assigned one opinion from that sitting. There is no requirement that this be done, and the Chief Justice (if he's in the majority) could decide not to do this at all, but it's been a tradition for a very long time, and Roberts seems to be following it.

2. There is one opinion remaining from the March sitting, Heller ( 2nd Amendment case). (There are still quite a few opinions remaining from other sittings that will be handed down in the next few days as well.)

3. Scalia has not authored a majority opinion from that sitting so far.

4. His only dissent in that sitting so far is not one where he probably had a majority originally (IOW, that would have been his opinion for the sitting before Kennedy or someone flip-flopped).

5. He has not authored any landmark decision this term, so the majority assigner wouldn't have reason to feel that Scalia had two many important decisions that term.

The idea is that if Scalia were not writing the Heller opinion, then most likely he would have been assigned another opinion from that sitting to even things out.

There is one major exception to all of this and that is that sometimes the CJ will take on an extra case or two for himself if those cases are going to be landmark. (The CJ speaking for the Court if you will.) However, Roberts already delivered the opinions of the Court in Baze and Medellin, two very big cases, so it seems unlikely that he'd be that greedy and take this one for himself as well.

Of course, none of this guarantees that Scalia is writing Heller (it could be Ginsburg for all anyone outside the Court knows for sure), but if you use this analysis consistently in situations where you only one case left from a sitting to be handed down, you'll be right far, far more often than you'll be wrong.

[HomeschoolrsRUs]

Thanks for that info, GDS, it was very informative! I guess I hadn't given much thought as to the inner workings of the SCOTUS. It's good to know, and read. Let's just keep our fingers crossed that Justice Scalia is the opinon writer in Heller.

[norman]

As expected Justice Kennedy and the other four conservatives decided for individual rights with Justice Scalia authoring the opinion.

http://www.supremecourtus.gov/opinions/07pdf/07-290.pdf

[GreatDredScott]

What's that you say? Justice Scalia authored the majority opinion? I'm shocked!:D

[Not_A_Libscum]

I'm shocked that anyone in the US Government acknowleded that WE the PEOPLE are individuals.